2006-Aug-10
Aug 10th 2006
Day130Month5Week2.3
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 2.4 (Day131) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 decreased deficit = -2634* Average -c20/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN decreased deficit = -459** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 5 from 10 so far in Aug.]
Row 1
DISTANT DRUMS - see Row 3 [Promoted from Row 3 due to non-runner]/WON (just)
Bets: Basic, Star (Lower level), 123 Combo, Total Combo BASIC PLAN +25
Row 2 - No qualifier
NOTEWORTHY: I've changed my policy as regards Supplementary bets. In future
1) Ad hoc Remedials will be on strong Row 1 qualifiers;
2) other Remedials will be on strong Row 2 qualifiers;
3) the start point for stakes adjustment will be such that my cash-flow remains workable at the 10th rung of the remedial ladder.
Row 3
230 Yarm. WINGED FLIGHT F/c 8/13 Min value odds according to my stats 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.59 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.88/WON
Rejected from Rows 1 or 2 because I am impressed that Newmarket opposes this runner with Glorious Prince F/c 7/1. Though not always right, this is suggestive of an opposable short-priced favourite.
610 Brig. [Elevated to Row 1 due to non-runner] DISTANT DRUMS F/c 11/10 Min val odds 1.87 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.59 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08/Won. Rejected from the other rows because the F/c odds are suggestive of close competition between 3 of the 4 runners. This one is the clear consensus favourite, however.
Bets: Place Only (Winged Flight), 123 Combo (sequential Win Double in this case), Total Combo (ditto), Xtra Combo (accum. not including Distant Drums) BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I
WINGED FLIGHT/Won
Bets: Basic, Double (in this case an enhancement of the Basic bet as no 2nd qualifier), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally but ditto the previous comment in this case), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +6
Naps II - No selection
Place Only I - on Row 3 (not Distant Drums) and all, or from,
Brig: BRACKLINN/2ND - SECRET LIAISON/WON
Chep: MOSHAAIR/2ND
Folk: L'OISEAU DE FEU/LOST - ATHENA'S DREAM/2ND
Hayd: EMILY'S PLACE/WON - MULAAZEM/WON
Yarm: PERSIAN FOX/WON - INAMINUTE/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo, Added: LateXtra (1) Combo
The losses came just right to prevent a nice little win, here. BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Brig: FRIEND'S HOPE/WON - TOFFEE VODKA/2ND
Chep: MAMBONOW/LOST
Folk: MALAAQ/2ND - BALIAN/LOST
Hayd: FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS/WON/MAISON ETTE/2ND [Toyed with doing a reverse forecast. Wish I had.]
Yarm: DAYLAMI DREAMS/LOST - GALA SUNDAY/WON
Bets: Basic @ halved stakes BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.09]
Fancy
Change of policy: Accounted under OVERALL in future as these selections are non-qualifiers for my Basic Plan betting
540 Brig. START OF AUTHORITY F/c 9/4/LOST
Bets: Place Only OVERALL EVEN [-0.25]
My Lay bets - None
Change of policy: Accounted under OVERALL for the time being
Tips
The Lay tips to hand are
MANDATUM F/c 11/4 410 Hayd. My target liability=12/2ND
PATAVIUM PRINCE F/c 2/1 630 Folk. TL=9/HRSE LOST [OVERALL +7]
Win tip to hand is CHARLIE COOL 3.40 Hayd/WON This is also Newmarket's Nap which is a good sign but I have gone the stakes adjusted route - small win, topped up to 10% of bank Place Only Wrong decision on this occasion.
Given this runner was also Newmarket's Nap, I should have gone the whole hog with the bet. [OVERALL +31]
A contra win tip to hand is WIND STAR/LOST in the same race but I shall not go with this tip even though it is the consensus favourite in the RP Selection Box. I may regret this decision. [Correct decision on this occasion.]
PROSPECTS
Little money at stake. Small profit hoped for (again).
OVERALL +71 (including BASIC PLAN +33)
Results of bets for Wed 9 Aug 2006
Day129Month5Week2.2
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 2.3 (Day130) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 increased deficit = -2705* Average -c21/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN increased deficit = -492** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 4 from 9 so far in Aug.]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
NOTEWORTHY: I am on the 10th rung of the Remedial Supplementary ladder currently - but the poor run on these bets has cost me all betting scope for the time being. I'm stuck. Five consecutive winning Row 2 selections have come and gone these past days without my daring to chance a 10th rung bet on any of them. Frustrating.
Error in adjustment of stakes: Leo McGarry & Superior Star OVERALL -5
Row 3
240 Brig. FREE OFFER F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my stats 1.57 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.26 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08/WON
330 Newc. LEO MCGARRY F/c 8/11 Non-qualifier, but included due to tipster support in the RP Selection Box (4xNaps, 1xNB)/LOST
Bets: 123 Combo, Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.47]
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Brig: FREE OFFER/Won
Newc: LEO MCGARRY/Lost
Pont: SUPERIOR STAR/Lost
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.49]
Place Only I
Newc: LEO MCGARRY/Lost
Pont: SUPERIOR STAR/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (as sequential Win Double) BASIC PLAN -5
Place Only II
Kemp: STRAWBERRY LOLLY/PLACED - MOSHARREF/PLACED
Pont: ALHATHAM/2ND
Bets: Basic @ halved stakes BASIC PLAN +1
Fancies
Newc: LEO MCGARRY/Lost
Bets: Small win
Newc: CARNIVORE/WON
Yarm: NOVISTA/LOST - FOREPLAY/LOST
Bets: Small Place Only
BASIC PLAN -1
My Lay bets - None
Tips
Added: LEO MCGARRY/Lost
ON THE OTHER HAND/WON [OVERALL +1]
Lay tip to hand is HIGH CLASS PROBLEM F/c 11/4 My target liability=20/HRSE WON [OVERALL -20]
PROSPECTS
Just a few bits and pieces, little risked. I just hope for another small profit.
One of my new thoughts this year was "at times you can be doing more than all right not to be doing a whole lot worse." Relevant today, I think. Leo McGarry neither qualified for Row 2, nor got located in Naps I.
I lost only a small amount on him as a Fancy, a smaller amount as a Tip, a bit under Place Only, and a tiny further amount by mistake. OVERALL -31 (including BASIC PLAN -6)
Result of bets for Tue 8 Aug 2006
Day128Month5Week2.1
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 2.2 (Day129) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 decreased deficit = -2674* Average -c21/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN increased deficit = -486** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 4 from 8 so far in Aug.]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Row 3
345 Bath. DEVON FLAME F/c 7/4 Included due to support in the RP Selection Box (3xNaps)/LOST
Bets: 123 Combo, Total Combo (with Naps I & II) BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.44]
Naps I
DEVON FLAME/Lost
Bets: Basic (Double stake), Total Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Naps II
CARILLON F/c 6/4/2ND
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I
Bath: DEVON FLAME/Lost
Catt: TEDSTALE F/c 9/4/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (sequential Double) BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
Bath: OLLIE GEORGE/WON/SPACEMAN/LOST
Catt: CARILLON/2nd
Bets: Basic @ half stakes BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.14]
Fancies - None contemplated
My Lay bets - None
Tips
Lay tips to hand:-
Bath: PAT WILL F/c 2/1 My target liability=8/HRSE LOST
Catt: COMPTON PLUME F/c 3/1 TL=3/HRSE LOST [OVERALL +5]
Lay tip to hand from another source
Bath: MUSICAL ROMANCE F/c 3/1 TL=29/2ND [OVERALL +7]
PROSPECTS
Small stakes, small prospects.
I hope for a small profit. Thanks to the Lay tips, I got one.
OVERALL +8 (including BASIC PLAN -5)
Results of bets for Mon 7 Aug 2006
Day127Month5Week1.7
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 2.1 (Day128) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 increased deficit = -2682* Average -c21/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN increased deficit = -481** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 3 from 7 so far in Aug.]
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
240 NewtA. ELLESLIE TOM F/c 8/11 Min value odds according to my stats 2.18 New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.95 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.05 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles/WON
310 NewtA. ALIKAT F/c 2/5 Min val odds and other stats as above Halve stakes as over obstacles/WON
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Trebles (in this case a Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), 123 Combo (with Row 3), Total Combo (with Row 3, Naps I), Xtra Combo (accum. with Place Only I), Added: LateXtra (1) Combo, Supplementary (Error) BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.35] and OVERALL +1
Row 3
755 Wind. VALVERDE F/c Evs Min val odds 2.46 New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.52 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.30/2ND
Bets: 123 & Total Combos, Added: LateXtra (1) Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Naps I
Ripo: CODEWORD/LOST (Double stake)
Carl: BAUER/LOST (Triple stake)
Bets: Basic, Total Combo BASIC PLAN -22
NapsII - No selection
Place Only I - on Row 2 and all, or from,
Carl: BAUER/3rd (paid on BF)
NewtA: GRAND SLAM HERO/WON
Ripo: CODEWORD/Lost
Bets: Basic (not Row 2), Xtra Combo (accum. with Row 2) BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
Carl: MISTER MAQ/2ND/MAKAI/3RD
NewtA: CRITICAL STAGE/WON
Ripo: TOP BID/LOST
Bets: Basic @ half stakes BASIC PLAN EVEN [0.00]
Fancies - None contemplated
[I had considered Wind. ZILCASH/LOST (4th) & ABBOTTS ANN/2ND but decided against as my stats are not suggestive enough, quite, for the win.] Correct decision on this occasion
Lay bets - None
Tips
One Lay tip to hand is 725 Wind. HABSHAN F/c 7/2 My target liability=35/2ND (No match) This is Newmarket's selection as the winner, which I don't like to oppose. But I think he might be wrong about this one, so probably I shall Lay it.
The other Lay tip to hand (from another source) is 410 NewtA. WAYNESWORLD F/c 11/4 My TL=18/HRSE WON (No bet) but I am doubtful, as it has a shade more support in the RP Selection Box than I like to see ideally. I think I shall leave this one alone. [Correct decision on this occasion.]
PROSPECTS
Very small stakes again. Little at stake. I hope for a profit. 'Naps I' let the side down rather. The selections there were tipped by no less than 5 of my 7 current favourite Naps Table ones or I would have listed the selections - where I usually place those which don't also appear in Rows 1, 2 or 3 - in 'Naps II.'
OVERALL -24 (including BASIC PLAN -24)
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