2006-Aug-6
August 6th 2006
Day126Month5Week1.6*s
*Sunday Mode (half stakes) not applied except to major bets, if any.
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 1.7 (Day127) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 decreased deficit = -2658* Average -c21/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN decreased deficit = -457** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 3 from 6 so far in Aug.]
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
230 Newb. ASTRONOMER ROYAL F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my stats 2.04 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.03 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.63/WON
250 Ches. GWEEBARRA F/c 4/5 Stats as per above/WON
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Treble (with Row 1 but today a sequential double as there is no Row 1 or 3rd Row 2 qualifier), Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +6
Row 3
340 Newb. REUNITE F/c 2/1 Included due to support in RP Selection Box (3xNaps, 1xNB)/2ND
Bets: 123 & Total Combos BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I
ASTRONOMER ROYAL/Won; & GWEEBARRA/Won (Double stake) - see above
Bets: Basic, sequential Double, 2-Row Double (an enhancement of the Double as there is no Row 1 qualifier), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +30
Naps II
Ches: INVINCIBLE FORCE/WON
MarkR: SAKENOS (halve stakes as over obstacles)/WON
Newb: REUNITE/2nd
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only I - on Row 2
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (sequential Double) BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II
Ches: INVINCIBLE FORCE/Won - SILKIE SMOOTH/2ND
MarkR: SAKENOS/Won - LINDSEYFIELD LODGE/2ND
Newb: MAKER'S MARK/2ND - REUNITE/2ND
Bets: Basic @ half stakes (halving not duplicated over obstacles) BASIC PLAN +2
Fancies - maybe:
325 Ches. CHICKEN SOUP F/c 7/2/WON
Bets: Small win BASIC PLAN +1
My Lay bets - To be added, if any
Tips
Good word to hand for IRISH WOLF 350 MarkR/WON but 7/4 thought too low a price. As so little is on elsewhere for today, I am chancing a small bet to Win and the rest to Place up to about 3.3% of bank. [OVERALL +8]
PROSPECTS
Just a few bets. No major investment.
I hope for a small profit.
OVERALL +52 (including BASIC PLAN +45)
Result of bets for Sat 5 Aug 2006
Day125Month5Week1.5
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 1.6 (Day126) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 decreased deficit = -2710* Average -c22/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN decreased deficit = -502** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 2 from 5 in Aug.]
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
755 Ling. MAIL EXPRESS F/c 1/3 Min value odds according to my stats 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.89 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.81/WON
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Treble (an enhancement of the single bet as there is no other qualifier), the 3 Combos
Accidentally added: Partial 'double up' on the 2-Row enhancement
NOTEWORTHY: I wanted to do a Supplementary bet on Mail Express but, given present loss of betting scope, did not dare BASIC PLAN +3 and OVERALL +1
Row 3 - No qualifier
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
215 Thir. PALO VERDE F/c 13/8/WON
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.42]
Place Only I - on Row 2 and
Wind: CELTIC MILL/WON
Added in error: CHANTEUSE NOIRE/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (+Chanteuse Noire/WON), Added: LateXtra (1) after Celtic Mill BASIC PLAN +5
Place Only II
Good: ALEXANDER GOLDRUN/2ND
Hami: DEFI/WON - DULCE SUENO/2ND/CHANTEUSE NOIRE/Won
Thir: PALO VERDE/Won
Wind: ANDRONIKOS/2ND
Bets: Basic @ half stakes BASIC PLAN +2
Fancies
Good: RED ROCK CANYON F/c 6/4/3RD - No bet
Bet: Changed my mind. I decided my stats were not good enough for the win. (Of 4 rejected here, only Ouija Board won)
My Lay bets
435 Wind. BALIEN/3RD/KINETA/NON RUN/ROYAL SENGA/HRSE LOST
I am going with just 18% of the target liabilities that I first computed as 95, 115, 191 respectively. I've not tripled the stakes on this occasion. BASIC PLAN +11
Tips
The Lay Tip to hand is SECRET LIAISON F/c 5/2 825 Ling. My target liability=20/NON RUN
The Win Tip to hand is GRANSTON 320 Thir/WON (just)
I am going the 'stakes adjusted' route again - small win, the balance (to 5% of bank) Place Only [OVERALL +*21] *as opposed to +126 by following instructions. But no regrets: the horse very nearly lost.
PROSPECTS
I've struggled today to compile a short-list. It was much longer - mainly Place Only I & II - but I cut it down ruthlessly, on an assortment of negatives, due to my cash flow position having gone suddenly zero in slack. In fact, the runners I rejected, which would have gone into the Xtra Combo accum., all won - so I had 2x3-Fold wins rather than `1x5-Fold one.
Thus ... no big bets, little at stake, hopes of just a small profit at best - or, at worst, heavier loss if the Win Tip fails to Place at least and/or a Layed horse 'wins the races.'
Did better than hoped: OVERALL +44 (including BASIC PLAN +22)
Results of bets for Fri 4 Aug 2006
Day124Month5Week1.4
Financial summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 1.5 (Day125) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 increased deficit = -2754* Average -c22/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN increased deficit = -524** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 1 from 4 in Aug.]
Row 1
255 Bang. WISCALITUS F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my stats 1.55 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.64 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.33 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles/LOST (2nd of 3)
Bets: Basic, Star bet (lower level), 2-Row Double (in this case an enhancement of the single bet as there is no selection in Naps I), 2-Row Treble (ditto as there is no Row 2 qualifier), the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN -81
Rows 2 & 3 - No qualifier
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Bang: IS IT ME/WON
Good: RED EVIE/WON
NewmJ: AUDIT (Double stake)/LOST (2nd of 4)
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN -4
Place Only I - including Row 1 in accum.
Bang: IS IT ME/Won - MANDINGO CHIEF/FELL (at 1st) - DANCING HILL/WON
Nott: GRAND ENTRANCE/LOST
Thir: RODEO/LOST
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (accum.), Added: LateXtra I after Wiscalitus, LateXtra II after Mandingo Chief BASIC PLAN -7
Place Only II
Bang: EVER SPECIAL/LOST - MOORMANA/WON
Nott: ZAAFRAN/WON - UNO/2ND/RUSE/LOST - CERTAIN JUSTICE/LOST
Thir: HUNTER'S GLEN/2ND
Bets: Basic @ half stakes BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.34]
Fancies
330 Bang. ELLERSLIE TOM F/c 11/8/WON
Bets: Small win BASIC PLAN +1
My Lay Bets - None contemplated
Tips
The Lay tip to hand is a non-runner: SHANK ON FOURTEEN
The Win tip to hand is DUNELIGHT 315 Good/2ND I have gone the 'stakes adjusted' route again - small win, the balance to 5% of bank, Place Only. [OVERALL +9]
PROSPECTS
Proportionally heavy dependence on WISCALITUS/2nd of 3 to go round first and, as the subscription tip, on DUNELIGHT/2nd. Otherwise not much at stake.
Could go either way, but likely the bets on W & D will cancel each other out, partially.
OVERALL -81 (including BASIC PLAN -90)
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