Bets on Au 31 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list of 1: BRIGHT MIND/2ND (Place Only I). My odds stats are, for the win, respectively iffy & 50/50ish. My Majority stat, however, is excellent - not that this guarantees anything (I accord that lower priority, anyway). With hindsight, given my weakish odds stats, I should have located this one in "Place Only II," which avoids the Xtra Combo bet.
Today's cards threw up few peripherals considering there is plenty of racing. It looks to me likely to be, very much, a Laura Luck day.
To avoid significant loss, I'm dependent on Bright Mind to, at least, place. (But see also a gamble in Place Only II.)
Summary Day 151 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Sep 1st (Month06Wk1.1Day152Phase07BDay62) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +131 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -611 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -373* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -921 ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17498 pts
Ave. of -c2/day* for Basic Plan over 242 days since 01/01/07
17 x Basic Plan Win days in Aug so far, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April, often small - a disappointing 1st quarter this financial year, but the Overall deficit is currently being chipped away E&OE.
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (Y)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Flat Basic & [(X)/11] Flat Star + Mop Up(s)/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (O)/13 pts: No qualifier - Bets: No Basic + Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (W)/11 pts: No Basic FS (Base rung) + Capped Mop Up + Capped FS Basic Place Only, (Y)11 pts: No Ad Hoc Supplementary, (V)/11 pts: No Remedial Supplementary + Mop Up + Capped RS Basic Place Only, (I)/24 pts: Short-list Place Only 'Combo'+Supplementary Mop Up, J/7 pts (re corrective action if taken): Mistake/s [Nil], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Nil] [OVERALL +1]
Row 3: (M)/13 pts: No qualifier
Infiltrated on Support: None
Bets typically: Capped Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: (Z)/31: The short-list - Bets: Capped Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.28]
Place Only I/RSA: (W)/21: (Arli) Race 2 No2 DIGGER/2ND F/c c28/10, R3 No5 LT JERRY MOUSE/WON F/c c5/1 - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II: (T)/22 pts: DEMISEMIQUAVER/2ND F/c 10/11/SUES SURPRISE/WON (A major gamble - @ 22 pts each - that both will finish in the frame), F/c 5/4, BOLD CHOICE/2ND F/c 2/1 - Bets: Basic (Capped on Demisemiquaver/Sues S.) BASIC PLAN +9
Combo II (Naps Table) - K/7 pts: No Diminished Total Combo, G/8 pts: No Total Combo+Xtra/s BASIC PLAN N/A
Combo III (Miscellaneous): B/10 pts See POI/RSA/WON - Bet: Basic Place Double BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I: B/10 pts: No selection - Bets typically: Capped Basic Win + Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus: (Y)/11 pts: RACING SUSPENDED IN AUSTRALIA (may partially resume Saturday) - Bets: Basic Win/Basic Place Only using my UK stats only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II: (L)/13 pts: SUGAR RAY/2ND (Double stakes) F/c 2/1, BRIGHT MIND/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 4/5 - Bets: Basic Win+(Capped on Bright Mind)Mop Ups, & Basic Place Only (ditto re Bright Mind) BASIC PLAN -9
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (T)/22 pts: PIC UP STICKS/LOST F/c 9/2, ACUZIO/LOST F/c 7/2, SUGAR RAY/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 2/1, BRIGHT MIND/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 4/5, MCCARTNEY/WON F/c Evs, ALAN DEVONSHIRE/2ND F/c 7/1, SOWDREY/3RD F/c 9/2 - Bets: Basic (Capped on Bright Mind) BASIC PLAN +1
[(i) No Main tip OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: H/8 pts: USA (Sara) MAKEPEACE F/c 5/2/yesterday/WON, (Elli) R9 No2 VICTORY FLYER F/c 2/1/Late result, see tomorrow - Bets: Basic Place Only if poss, otherwise Win or, occasionally, EW [OVERALL EVEN (+0.20)] (iii) (a) Aust/Free tips ("Bet4Place" - overnight): (U)/12 pts: AUSTRALIAN RACING CANCELLED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE (OUTBREAK OF HORSE INFLUENZA) - MAY PARTIALLY RESUME TOMORROW - Bets typically: Win (occasionally) & Place Only (a) OVERALL N/A]; (b) (Y)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tip today - Bets typically: Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING &, today, N/A]; (iv) A/10 pts: Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/Fancies): IR (Down) DINGLE BELLE/2ND F/c 8/11, TOP THE CHARTS/WON F/c 4/5, SHES THE BISCUIT/2ND F/c 5/2, (UK) SUGAR RAY/2nd F/c 2/1 - Bets: Place Only if possible or, if not, Win or EW [OVERALL +1] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post: No selection - Bets: Token Basic at present [OVERALL N/A]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]
(ii) Selection Boxes: (F)/15 pts: ALECIA/LOST F/c 9/4 - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL -1]