The Totopoly Kid

Result of bets for Thu 3 Aug 2006
Day123Month5Week1.3

Financial summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 1.4 (Day124) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 increased deficit = -2673* Average -c22/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN increased deficit = -434** Average -c4/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 1 from 3 in Aug.]

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
740 Muss. DUROVA F/c 4/9 Min value odds based on my stats 1.86 New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.00/LOST
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Treble (an enhancement of the single as there is no other qualifier), Place Only, 123 Combo (ditto), Sequential Total Combo, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN -28

Row 3 - No qualifier

Naps I
155 Carl. FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS/NON RUN
315 Good. YEATS F/c 6/4/WON
Bets: Basic (Triple stake re Yeats), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +21

Naps II
205 Good. SCOTTISH STAGE F/c 6/4/LOST
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN

Place Only I - on Row 2 and all, or from,
Carl: FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS/Non run
Good: SCOTTISH STAGE/Lost
Epso: WHITE DEER/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo
Added: LateXtra (1) Combo after Scottish Stage     BASIC PLAN -17

Place Only II
Carl: SIR CHARLES(Omitted in error)/2ND (No bet) - ATLANTIC VIKING/WON - CELTIC SPA/WON
Epso: OTRANTO/LOST - CURTAIN BLUFF/LOST
Muss: BALLIEBOROUGH/LOST (3rd of 7) on Tote. (Would have been OK on Betfair) - BOND BECKS
Stra: IL PENSEROSA/WON (maybe luckily)
Bets: Basic @ half stakes     BASIC PLAN -1

Fancies
Good: LA CUCARACHA/WON - YEATS/WON - ROAD TO LOVE/WON
Bets: Small win     BASIC PLAN +9

My Lay bets
Added: Stra: INDIAN STAR/NON RUN F/c 6/1 My target liability (for 2 in same race)=242/SMART MINISTER F/c 10/1 TL=394/2ND - SKY MACK F/c 5/1 TL=197 (2 in same race)/NON RUN/KELNIK GLORY F/c 6/1 TL=236/HRSE LOST (3rd) I shall try to commit myself to 10% of these Target Liabilities     BASIC PLAN +5

Tips
Lay tip to hand is HIGHLAND GAMES F/c 2/1 220 Stra. My target liability=17/3RD  Also WAGTAIL F/c 11/4 655 Epso. But it is Newmarket's Nap of the day (which I don't oppose). No bet (Correct decision)/HRSE WON     [OVERALL + 6]
The 1/2pt EW tip to hand is CREATIVE MIND 425 Good/LOST I have gone the 'stakes adjusted' route to a total of 5% of bank     [OVERALL -18]

PROSPECTS
Just one qualifier on Basic Plan for the main rows (but at a poor price). Dependence today is collective i.e., bets in aggregate. I may squeak into profit by the end.
I squeaked into loss!
OVERALL -24 (including BASIC PLAN -11)
 
Result of bets for Wed 2 Aug 2006
Day123Month5Week1.2

Financial summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 1.3(Day124) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 increased deficit = -2649* Average -c22/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN increased deficit = -423** Average -c3/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 1 from 2 in Aug.]

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier

Row 3
215 Muss. PERSIAN PERIL F/c 10/11 Min value odds according to my stats 1.72 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.33/WON
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos    BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.28]

Naps I
315 Good. ARAAFA F/c Evs Min val odds 1.72 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.03/LOST
Bets: Basic @ triple stake, Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -37

Naps II
710 Leic. GIZMONDO F/c 9/4/LOST
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Good: ARAAFA/Lost
NewtA: MASTER REX/LOST
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN -7

Place Only II
Leic: DOWLLEH/2ND - GIZMONDO/Lost
NewtA: GOLDBROOK/3RD - CHESS BOARD/LOST
Bets: Basic @ half stakes     BASIC PLAN -3

Fancies - None contemplated

My Lay bets - None contemplated

Tips
Lay tips from one source:
250 Muss: MALELANE/2ND (No match) - Not above 6.00
My target liability=41
810 Leic: LADY LILY/HRSE LOST - Not above 3.00
My target liability=36     [OVERALL +17]
The Lay tip from the other source is
756 Kemp. DAMA'A F/c 5/4/HRSE WON
My target liability=7     [OVERALL -7]
The Win tip to hand is DUKE OF MARMALADE F/c 6/1 240 Leic/2ND I have gone the 'stakes adjusted' route again but to only 5% of bank (as this is the subject of an on-the-day gamble)     [OVERALL +6]

PROSPECTS
I struggled to make up a menu of runners to back today. (Becoming a familiar story.) Once again, the lay and win tips going wrong would scupper any small profit made on the rest of the betting from which I have no great expectations.
Actually, row 'Naps I' did the principal damage - ARAAFA's failure.
OVERALL -34 (including BASIC PLAN -49)

Result of bets for Tue 1st Aug 2006
Day122Month5Week1.1
 
Financial summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 1.2(Day123) OVERALL wef 01/04/06 (decreased) deficit = -2615* Average -c21/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall] including BASIC PLAN (increased) deficit = -374** Average -c3/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 1 from 1 in Aug.]

NOTEWORTHY: Due to ill luck on a preponderance of main bets during the 1st third of the financial year, I've decided to (1) change my approach on Supplementary bets (2) rely more on Basic Plan, except for subscription tips, and (3) stake mainly from banks in credit - except Lays, within reason

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
830 Pert. FIELD ROLLER F/c 5/4 Min value odds 2.38 New odds stat stakes reducer 0.55 Old stat stakes enhancer 1.08/2ND
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Trebles (in this case an enhancement of the basic bet as no other qualifier)
Additionally: Originally, the comment re 2-Row Treble above applied also to KING'S CAUSEWAY/3RD and a partial bet was matched on it on the same basis. Subsequently, I downgraded King's Causeway to Row 3.     BASIC PLAN -1

Row 3
255 Beve. KING'S CAUSEWAY F/c 13/8 Min val odds *4.60 (*a reflection of my odds stat + 20%: 11W22L) New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.33/3rd
540 Worc. POSSEXTOWN F/c 8/11 Min val odds 2.20 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.21 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.69 Halve stake as the race is over obstacles/WON
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.08]

Naps 1
KING'S CAUSEWAY/3rd - see above
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Double (with Row 1, normally, but an enhancement of the single today as there is no other qualifier), Total Combo    
The demotion of King's Causeway to Row 3 was made too late to also relegated it to Naps II     BASIC PLAN -4

Naps II
900 Pert. LAHIB THE FIFTH F/c 9/4/2ND
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.19]

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and all, or from,
Pert: LAHIB THE FIFTH/2nd
Worc: PAPILLON DE LENA/LOST - SHIWAWA/WON - RUSHNEEYRIVER/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (accum.) Added: LateXtra (1) Combo after King's Causeway, LateXtra (2) Combo after Papillion de Lena     BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II - on all, or from,
Beve: BETSEN/LOST
Good: SIXTIES ICON/WON - JEREMY/LOST - BAHAMA MAMA/3RD
Pert: MOCHARAMOR/LOST
Worc: LADY OF SCARVAGH/WON - MODAFFA/LOST - HUNTING LODGE/LOST - NAVADO/LOST
Bets: Basic @ half stakes     BASIC PLAN -3

Fancies - None contemplated

My Lay bets
440 Beve. CHAPTER/HORSE LOST/WAHCHI/HRSE LOST (No match) both F/c 14/1
Bets: Target liability=88 each Unlikely to be matched, however. Was caught out on a poor price and counter-backed Chapter to win     BASIC PLAN +2

Tips
235 Deau. SWEET TRAVEL/3RD - LAHUDOOD/2ND
Galw. COMMONCHERO/3RD - SUPPOSITION/WON
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.44)]
Lay tip to hand CLARET AND AMBER 405 Beve. F/c 11/4 Bet: Target liability=18/HRSE LOST     [OVERALL +6]
Win tip to hand SIXTIES ICON 2.40 Good. F/c 9/4/WON
Bet: I have gone the stakes adjusted route - 40%+ win, the balance to 10% of bank Place Only     [OVERALL +45]

PROSPECTS
A failure of the Lays might cause damage, otherwise not much is at stake. The day could go either way, with perhaps a loss being more likely than a profit. Another none too easy sort of betting day, it seems to me.
OVERALL +41 (including BASIC PLAN -8)
NOTEWORTHY: The revised approach bore fruit on Day 1. The change re Supplementary bets meant I did not chance one on Field Roller which failed to win (2nd).
2. The reliance on Basic Plan restricted me to a modest loss only on these bets, one that was more than off-set by gains off dependence on the subscription tips.

Thank you for reading. I am, yours truly,
The Totopoly Kid