Bets on Au 25 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list of 1: SENSE OF JOY/WON (Place Only I). My odds stats are only 50/50 for the win, with my Majority stat only a little better.
It seems a day more difficult in general than, at first glance, one might suppose. I've a feeling it could be sprinkled with surprises/disappointments, so I've rejected a number of fancied runners (due to negatives in my stats), over-cautiously, perhaps. Few peripherals found, in consequence. I'll be betting lightly today.
Summary Day 145 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Aug 26 (Month05Wk4.4Day146Phase07BDay56) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) Surplus = +48 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -694 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -456* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -985 ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17562 pts (Ave. of -c2/day* for Basic Plan over 236 days since 01/01/07); 13 x Basic Plan Win days in Aug so far, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April, mainly small - a disappointing 1st quarter this financial year, but the Overall deficit is currently being chipped away E&OE.
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (Y)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Flat Basic & [(X)/11] Flat Star + Mop Up(s)/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (Q)/12 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Flat Basic + Mop Up + Basic Place Only, (Y)/11 pts: Flat FS (zero rung, notionally) + Mop Up + FS Basic Place Only; Today: (X)11 pts: Ad Hoc Supplementary Accumulator on Place Only III/Naps Row (perhaps/Didn't do it), (U)/12 pts: No Basic Remedial Supplementary (Zero Rung, notionally)/No Mop Up + RS Basic Place Only, (K)/24 pts: Short-list Place Only 'Combo' + Supplementary Mop Up, K/7 pts (re corrective action if taken): Mistake/s: I overlooked that I could quadruple my Place Only stakes on Cesare and still be within the ceiling for the relevant rows [Not quantified], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Negligible] [OVERALL +2]
Row 3: (N)/23 pts: No qualifier
Infiltrated on Support: None
Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: (Z)/31: Short-list - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I/RSA: A/20: (Turf) 1125 FIRST BLOOD/WON F/c c18/10, 1235 LADY PORTER/2ND, no bet F/c c19/10, SPRING GARLAND/WON, no bet F/c c13/10, (Keni) 120 CAPTAIN'S LOVER/WON F/c 14/10 - Bets: Usually 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II: (V)/21 pts: No qualifier - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN N/A
Combo II (Naps Table) - K/7 pts: No Diminished Total Combo, H/8 pts: No Total Combo BASIC PLAN N/A
Combo III (Miscellaneous tips): E/9 pts: Place Only I/RSA qualifiers (perhaps/Didn't do it) BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps I: A/10 pts: CESARE/2ND (Quadruple stake/not applied) F/c 11/8 - Bets: Capped Basic Win + Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN -9
Naps II/Aus: (Y)/11 pts: (Belm) Race 4 FLIRTSON/NO RUN F/c F/c 8/15 - Bets: Basic Win/Basic Place Only using my UK stats only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II: (N)/13 pts: No selection - Bets: Basic Win & Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (V)/21 pts: BALTHAZAR'S GIFT/2ND F/c 5/4, DUNELIGHT/LOST F/c 5/1/CESARE/2ND (Quadruple stakes/not applied) F/c 11/8, RED ALERT DAY/3RD (after SQ - was 2nd past post) F/c 9/2, ABYDOS/LOST F/c 11/8, SENSE OF JOY/Won F/c 4/7 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +2
[(i) No Main tip OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: G/8 pts: USA (Sara) 955 KING OF THE ROXY F/c 10/1/Late result - see tomorrow - Bets: Place Only if poss, otherwise Win or, occasionally, EW [OVERALL N/A] (iii) (a) Aust/Free tips ("Bet4Place" - overnight): (U)/12 pts: AUSTRALIAN RACING CANCELLED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE (DUE TO OUTBREAK OF HORSE INFLUENZA)
[?xPL(incl ?xW)?xL,?xN/R - Bets: Win (occasionally) & Place Only (a) OVERALL N/A]; (b) (Y)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, Tip today is a 4-fold football accum. which I don't do - Bets typically: Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING &, today, N/A]; (iv) C/10 pts: Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/Fancies): Added back: RECORD BREAKER/LOST F/c 4/1, ELLEN'S GIRL/WON F/c 6/4 - Bets: Place Only if possible or, if not, Win or EW [OVERALL EVEN (+O.05)] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post: LUCARNO/RESULT IF ANY NOT KNOWN - Bets: Token Basic at present [OVERALL N/A]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]
(ii) Selection Boxes: (E)/15 pts: ABYDOS/Lost F/c 11/8, Added back: MEYDAN DUBAI/2ND F/c Evs - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL-1]