2006-Oct-16
Diary for Oct 16 2006
Day197Month7Week3.2 (Phase 06B Day77)
PROSPECTS
3 in my main short list again. They are medium strength "consensus favs" - but my Odds stat is especially strong only on PRESENTING EXPRESS/WON (Row 2). However, this is not affirmed by the other stats. (Quite possibly it should be in Row 3 instead.) The other 2 have a 50/50 (or worse) look about them for the win. So I've located those (PAULO DANCER/WON & ASHES REGAINED/LOST) just in "Place Only I." A small profit today may acrue [just 1 pleasing point in Basic Plan], but I am not confident (and have taken some chances variously, anyway, on other runners). However, very little is at stake. I shall not be losing any sleep.
OUTCOME: The major tip lost OVERALL -22 points (including BASIC PLAN +1)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 3.3 Day198 (Phase B: Day 78)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -76 points @ an average of -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +107 points @ an average of +c1/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 9 (9) [+230]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
440 Plum. PRESENTING EXPRESS/Won F/c 5/6 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20 % = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.08 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
Bets: Basic, Remedial Supplementary (8th rung) + notional Mop Up (extrapolated from the performance of the Xtra Combo as no place Only bet is available in this race), 2-Row 'Treble' (normally with Row 1, but today an enhancement of the Win single as there are no other qualifiers), 123 Combo (ditto - @ double the amount i.e., to include the equivalent of the usual accum.), Supplementary Ad hoc Mop Up on ABHISHEKA/WON (as it is already in Place Only I), Total Combo, Xtra Combo, Supplementary Short-List Combo, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any, accounted within Overall [-0.15] BASIC PLAN +1 plus OVERALL +2
Row 3 - No qualifier
Xtra Xtras (Basic Plan only)
Re: Xtra Total/1, LateXtra/1 Combos
Bets: Basic [BASIC PLAN N/A]
Place Only I - Row 2 and
Plum: PAULO DANCER/Won
Wind: ABHISHEKA/Won - ASHES REGAINED/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.38]
Place Only II
Plum: SPIDER BOY/LOST - BALLYKELLY/LOST
Pont: FLORES SEA/WON
Wind: ACCOMPANIST/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
Naps I
PRESENTING EXPRESS/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, but just an enhancement of the Single today), Double (an enhancment of the Single as there is no 2nd selection), Total Combo (Win Double - but at double the stake so as to include an accumulator equivalent for 2 runners) BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II
ABHISHEKA/Won F/c 5/4 330 Wind.
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Fancies
Plum: ART MODERN/LOST
Pont: CANTABILLY/LOST (Double stake) - CHAMPLAIN/2ND - NEWS OF THE DAY/LOST
Wind: VITZNAU/WON (Double stake) - GLOBAL TRAFFIC/2ND - WORD PERFECT/LOST
Bets: Fancy Multi (EWDoubles, Uncapped [already min stake]7FoldEWAccum.) OVERALL -4
My Lay bets - None
Tips
CAMBRIDGE BELLE F/c 6/1 715 Keen(USA/LOST - result from yesterday
No. 4 CASH RICH F/c 9/5 854 Dela(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.39)]
Major Lay tip to hand is KYLE/2ND 200 Wind.
This is Robin Goodfellow's Nap. Another case of Expert versus Expert = (another) No bet. Do I want selections, here, that have been napped to win by a top tipster? No. It may well lose, but, goodness me, is there no safer Lay in the land today? No bet, no regret [OVERALL N/A]
Major EW tip to hand is CONTEMPLATION/LOST 250 Pont.
Small win, the balance made up to total 20 points, Place Only [OVERALL -20]
Good word noted on WORLDLY/NON RUN (Wind) - WISE MEN SAY/3RD (Plum)
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
0 comments | add a comment