The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Fri Oct 13 2006
Day194Month7Week2.6 (Phase 06B Day74)

PROSPECTS
One of my main short-list of three (RED GALA/WON) enjoys a most encouraging 'odds configuration' stat in my records. My two other stats on it both suggest its chances are encouragingly better than 50/50. However, I have cautiously kept it just to Row 2, not going over-board on its chance (except with a Capped FS bet, which has computed to a relatively modest 13 points). I shall be hoping, especially, that it does not fail to Place, at least, for that would do away with a further 20 points and edge me over the threshold of 'significant hurt.'
The 'odds' stats for the other two in my short-list are exactly 50/50 for the win [both won], but the remaining stats include negatives. I'm taking a chance with these qualifiers in Row 3, I feel. Maybe I'm embarking on too many bets actually, considering I'd resolved only yesterday to proceed cautiously for a day or two! I may end the afternoon reeling! I'm a touch pessimistic, in short, today; just hoping for the best. Needn't have worried!
OUTCOME:  Today's experience is a classic example of this format at work.      OVERALL +36 points (including BASIC PLAN +40)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 2.7 Day195 (Phase B: Day 75)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -23 points @ an average of  -c0/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +104 points @ an average of +c1/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 8 (7) [+283]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
300 Brig. RED GALA/Won F/c 8/11 Min val odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 1.86 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.05 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.45
Bet: Basic, Capped FS + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1, when applicable, but today an enhancement of the Win bet as there is no other qualifier), Place Only,123 Combo, Total Combo, Xtra Combo (Capped), Share of Xtra Xtras (Basic Plan), Supplementary Short-List Combo, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any, within Overall [+0.57]    BASIC PLAN +8 plus OVERALL +17

Row 3
145 Warw. CAT DE MILLE/WON F/c 6/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79
250 Warw. LA COLLINE/WON F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27
Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo, Total Combo,  Xtra Combo (Capped), Share of Xtra Xtras      BASIC PLAN +13

Xtra Xtras (Basic Plan only)
123Xtra/1 (no bet)
TotalXtra/1 (de-capped EWSingle as now 1-Fold) after Desert Chief
LateXtra/1 after Jalil (de-capped as now 5-Fold)
Bets: as appropriate (based on originating Combo stakes)     [BASIC PLAN +17  (Shared equally between applicable rows)]

Naps I
Newm: PROPONENT/WON F/c 1/2
Bets: Basic (Double stake), 'Double' (an enhancement of the Single win bet as there is no 2nd selection), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1, when applicable; today, an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo, Share of Xtra Xtras    BASIC PLAN +2

Naps II
Brig: BYGONE DAYS/WON - DANJET/LOST
Newm: DESERT CHIEF/LOST
Pity Danjet nor Desert Chief neither Won nor Placed. Either outcome what have impacted nicely on the Total Combo.
Bets: Total Combo, Share of Xtra Xtras     BASIC PLAN +6

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Newm: JALIL/LOST - PROPONENT/Won - BYGONE DAYS/Won
Bets: Basic (excluding Proponent), Xtra Combo, Share of Xtra Xtras     BASIC PLAN +13

Place Only II
Newm: VILLA SONATA/LOST
Warw: SATIN BRAID/NON RUN
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -2

Fancies
Newm: PROPONENT/Won (Win Only race)
Bet: Tiny Win
Brig: DANJET/Lost
Warw: GOOSE GREEN/3RD
Bets: Fancy Multi (EWDouble without Proponent), Xtra Fancy Multi/1 (with Proponent) after Goose Green     OVERALL EVEN [-0.24]

My Lay bets - None

Tips
Late result from yesterday: RHAPSODYBOHEMIAN Keen(USA/LOST
HIGH FINANCE F/c 7/2 1015 Keen(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
LUNAR FANTASY 1205 Arli(RSA/WON
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.34)]
Major Lay tip to hand is BALTIC BELLE/3RD F/c 11/4 225 Brig. This looks OK so far as it goes, far from being the "consensus favourite." However, it is an "NB" and also Napped to win by Robin Goodfellow. This pits expert opinions versus expert opinion. Whom should I trust? I don't know. (My tipster, it must be admitted, has been off-form this month.) When in doubt,  "do n'owt"? I'm not too happy laying a respected authority's Nap to win, really. Current favourite. No; I won't be laying this selection. Wrong decision - but no regrets    [OVERALL N/A]
Major EW tip is MOTARAQEB/LOST F/c 13/2 455 Newm.
Bet: About 1/3rd to win and 2/3rds to place to a grand total of 20 points     [OVERALL -20]
Good words to hand on SMART ASS/LOST (Warw) - CHRONOMATIC/LOST - run for money (Newm)
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]