2006-Oct-11
Diary for Oct 11 2006
Day192Month7Week2.4 (Phase 06B Day72)
PROSPECTS
One of my main short-list of two (MAGIC SKY/WON) enjoys the 'odds configuration' stat in my records of 77W68L. Not terriific, but not bad. My two other stats both suggest chances are better than 50/50. As the race is a Seller, I have kept Magic Sky to Row 2. Quite likely to win but I'm not going over-board on its chance.
The 'odds' stat for the other one (TYBALT/WON) is not that good - 24W40L; and with my other 2 stats both indicating less than 50/50 on the chances of success, it's a case of "Place Only I" for it. However, I've allocated it to Row 3 & Naps I, also, on the basis of the weight of tipster "Support."
Aside from any investment I make on a major tip, I don't need, as per yesterday, to be holding my breath. I expect a profit but am risking very little.
OUTCOME: The major lay tip scuppered me today. Always extra disappointing when hard won gains are wiped by an expert's tip! OVERALL -20 points (including BASIC PLAN +3)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 2.5 Day193 (Phase B: Day 73)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -74 points @ an average of -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +69 points @ an average of +c1/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 6 (6) [+232]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
315 Utto. MAGIC SKY/Won F/c 1/3 Min val odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = an improbable 2.06 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.25 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.09 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
Bet: Basic, Capped FS + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1, when applicable, but today an enhancement of the Win bet as there is no other qualifier), Place Only, 123 Combo (Sequential Double), Total Combo, Xtra Combo (an enhancement of the Double), Supplementary Short-List Combo (as per Xtra Combo), Discrepancy to my credit but unexplained [+2.61] BASIC PLAN +1 plus OVERALL +10
Row 3
220 LingAW. TYBALT/Won F/c 6/4 (Not strictly a qualifier) Min val odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = an improbable 3.00 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70 Included here due to its Support in the Racing Post's Selection Box (3xNaps, opposed x1Nap) for this race
Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo, Total Combo, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.47]
Naps I
TYBALT/Won & MAGIC SKY/Won - see above
Bets: Basic (Triple stake on Tybalt), Sequential Double, 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1, when applicable; today, an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II
355 LingAW: CHIEF OPERATOR/ LOSTF/c 4/5
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.47]
Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
LingAW: CHIEF OPERATOR/Lost
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -2
Fancies
LingAW: QUEEN NOVERRE/LOST - TOP MARK/2ND
Weth: TEE-JAY/2ND - BOB MOUNTAIN/LOST - FUNNY TIMES/LOST
Bets: EWTrebles, Xtra/1afterQueenNoverre & -/2afterTopMark/EWTs OVERALL -3
My Lay bets - None
Tips
Late result from yesterday: ANGAPANGA F/c 3/1 827 Dela(USA/WON
GRANDE MELODY F/c 5/2 915 Keen(USA/WON
ES TANO Currently 1/3 105 Scot(RSA/2ND (@ 1/5!)
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.05)]
Major Lay tip to hand is ALBERTAS RUN/HRS WON F/c 7/4 210 Utto. I see no objection this time. But I'll wait to see what market support it receives. Overnight it looks relatively strong, too strong maybe. I got caught out by late money - at a slight over-bet. A counter bet 'in running' might have been an idea later, if only I'd the courage ...
Bet: Target liability 40 points (but likely I'll not go above 25) Yes: 25 [OVERALL -27]
No major Win tip today
No good word(s) to hand There was one that lost but I missed it somehow
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL N/A]
0 comments | add a comment