The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Tue Oct 10 2006
Day191Month7Week2.3 (Phase 06B Day71)

PROSPECTS
My main short-list of five enjoy stats in my records that suggest their chances of the win is within a range just short of 50/50 to rather better - but contradicted by a stat or other negative in each case. This could be a day of near misses by even strong "concensus favourites." So I have located 4 in "Row 3" and 1 in "Place Only I."
Aside from any investment on a major tip, as per yesterday, I'll not be holding my breath. Little enough is at stake per bet, but collectively I feel vulnerable. Gains may not outstrip losses.
OUTCOME: The sad demise of Royal Proposal spoiled what was otherwise a resonable result     OVERALL +16 points (including BASIC PLAN +12)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 2.4 Day192 (Phase B: Day 72)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -54 points @ an average of  -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +66 points @ an average of +c1/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 6(5) [+252]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bet: Supplementary Short-List Combo (EWDoubles), S/L/1 Combo (Win Treble) after Mimisel, Supplementary (Mistake): 4-fold EW accum. (was supposed to be 1x 5-fold but I clicked 2x4-fold in the Total Combo).
From yesterday: VALENTINE AVENUE F/c 9/2 907 Laur(USA/3rd - no bet (overlooked)
Remedial Supplementary (10th rung) + Mop Up on ROYAL PROPOSAL/NON RUN     OVERALL +3

Row 3
210 Newc. MIMISEL/WON F/c Evs Min val odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 1.86 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.55 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27
250 Leic. MAJURO/WON F/c 1/2 Min value odds + 20% = 1.38 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 3.14 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79
400 Leic. GLEN NEVIS/WON F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.45
505 Leic. ROYAL PROPOSAL/Non run F/c Evs Min val odds + 20% = 1.86 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.53 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70
Bets: Place Only (except Majuro), 123 Combo, Total Combo, Xtra Total/1 after Life,  Xtra Combo, LateXtra/1     BASIC PLAN +13

Naps I
GLEN NEVIS/Won & ROYAL PROPOSAL/Non run - see above
Bets: Basic (Double stake on Royal Proposal), Sequential Double, 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1, when applicable; just an enhancement of the existing Double today), Total Combo, Xtra Total/1    BASIC PLAN +3

Naps II
150 Leic. LIFE/LOST F/c 4/5
Bets: Total Combo, Xtra Total/1 after Life     BASIC PLAN +1

Place Only I - on Row 3 and
LIFE/Lost - see above
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo, LateXtra/1    BASIC PLAN -4

Place Only II
Leic: WAYMARK/2ND - HURLINGHAM/LOST - ALWAYS BAILEYS/LOST (jockey dropped hands, I thought; cost possible 3rd spot) - TIANA/NON RUN
Newb: MYTHICAL KID/WON
Newc: GEMOLOGY/2ND
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Fancies
Leic: CARWELL/LOST
Bet: Tiny win
Leic: HITS ONLY CASH/NON RUN - CARWELL/Lost
Newb: GUISEPPE VERDI/LOST - ATRAAS/LOST
Newc: SIVOTA/3RD
Bets: Multiple of EWTrebles
300 Newb: SUNSHINE KID/WON/PUTRA SQUARE/LOST
425 Newc: GREY OUTLOOK/WON/MOONLIGHT MUSIC/2ND
Bet: 2x2 EWDoubles
The above 2x2 runners plus
525 Newc: CLEAVER/WON/SHAPE UP/LOST
Bet: 3x3 EWTrebles     OVERALL +1

My Lay bets - None

Tips
ANGAPANGA F/c 3/1 827 Dela(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
STRIKE UP THE BAND Currently 14/1 Durb(RSA/LOST
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
Major Lay tip to hand is CORNFLOWER/HRS LOST 140 Newc. This runner is nominated by Newmarket as the likely winner. Likelier to lose, I think, but still, no bet. (I notified this tipster and his team of my view that Newmarket win selections are often to be avoided as lay tips. They are not going to change their selections policy, he replied respectfully. Well, I'm not changing mine either. No bet. But I expect my policy to be wrong, today.) No regrets
No major Win tip today
Good word to hand so far on DIUM MAC/WON (Newc.)
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL +1]