The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Mon Oct 9 2006
Day190Month7Week2.2 (Phase 06B Day70)

PROSPECTS
My main short-list of one, TEBLADORA/3RD (Row 3), enjoys stats suggestive that the chance of the win is better than 50/50 - but contradicted by one stat. Including this qualifier, it looks to me to be another "Laura Luck" day.
The selections in the Fancies Row might work out if quite good stats I have are born out. I have rejected them from the Place Only and Naps II Rows, even so, due to some negatives that disqualify them in my book. I shall be interested in how these Trebles work out. 1W2PL2L
Aside from any investment on a major tip, I'll not be holding my breath today. Little is at stake.
OUTCOME:     OVERALL -11 points (including BASIC PLAN -4)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 2.3 Day191 (Phase B: Day 71)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -70 points @ an average of  -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +54 points @ an average of +c1/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 5(4) [+236]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bet: Supplementary Short-List 'Combo' (in this case a Win bet on TEBLADORA/3rd as the only qualifier) + Mop Up, Counter Lay & re-bet to win (for better return if any) Oops, cost me -3
Supplementary (Mistake): Tiny Win bet on CAPE FOX F/c 5/1 958 Hawt(USA/2ND - good run for money, unexpectedly - late result from yesterday    OVERALL -6

Row 3
150 Wolv. TEBLADORA/3rd F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 2.06 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.46 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70
Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo (as per the Short-List Combo), Total Combo, Xtra Combo (Sequential Double)     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.43]

Naps I
TEBLADORA - see above
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the win bet as there is no 2nd qualifier), 2-Row 'Double' (same as for the 'Double'), Total Combo Should have kept this in Naps II where I put it initially     BASIC PLAN -2

Naps II - No selection

Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Ayr: SCOTLAND THE BRAVE/2ND
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo    BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II
Wolv: COSMIC DESTINY/LOST
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Fancies
Ayr: TIPSY PRINCE/WON - DISPOL FOXTROT/LOST
Wind: OCEANA GOLD/LOST - CELTIC SPRIT/3RD - TEN SHUN/2ND
Bets: Multiple of EWTrebles     OVERALL -2

My Lay bets - None

Tips
From yesterday: PRECOCIOUS KAT F/c 5/2 915 Keen(USA/LOST - Late result - from yesterday
Today: No.1 VALENTINE AVENUE F/c 9/2 907 Laur(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.39)]
Major Lay tip to hand is FASHION STATEMENT/HRS WON 405 Wind. This runner is nominated by Newmarket, Robin Goodfellow and Templegate as likely to win. Good enough for me. No bet. Correct decision this time. (I have sent an email to this tipster advising him and his team not to tip Newmarket selections to lay. I'm fed up getting these!)
No major Win tip to hand today
Good words to hand so far on GO FIGURE/FORROGER (Wind./BOTH LOST
Bet: Tiny wins     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]