The Totopoly Kid

Bets for Mon 4 Sep 2006
Day155Month6Week1.4
Phase 06B Day35

Financial Summary E&OE:-

B/F to Sep Week 1.4 (Day155):

OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) gain = +55 points @ an average of  +2/day ...

including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +175 points @ an average of +c5/day

Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep 2 (2) from 3 in Sep.

PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 2
230 Newc. LOVE DUBAI F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat +20% = 1.39 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 7.00 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.40
250 Warw. THABAAT F/c 4/7 Min val odds 1.27 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.08 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.40
I was tempted to go with major Supplementary bets on these but decided against
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Treble (normally with Row 1 but today a Win Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), Place Only, the 3 Combos
Added: Ad hoc Mop Up on LOVE DUBAI; Supplementary Short-List Combo on the above + ALAMBIC - see below

Row 3
250 Warw. THABAAT - see above
350 Warw. ALAMBIC F/c 13/8 Min val odds 2.64 New odds stat stakes enhancement x 1.20 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos

Naps I
LOVE DUBAI - see above
Bets: Basic (Double stake), Double (no 2nd qualifier so an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally but today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo

Naps II
ALAMBIC - 350 Warw. F/c 13/8 Min val odds 2.64 New odds stat stakes enhancement x 1.20 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79
Bet: Total Combo

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo

Place Only II
Bath: CORDELIA
Bets: Basic

Fancies (maybe)
Bath: CORDELIA
Warw: SECRET LIAISON - FAIRDONNA
Bets: Basic (Place Only)

My Lay bets - None contemplated

Tips
Late result from yesterday: ALI OLAH Elli(USA)/WON
Word to hand on Bath: IZADORE; Warw: HAZZARD COUNTY - LADY LAFFITE (not necessarily in that order) but I shall not be backing any of them - probably to my eventual regret. Their line-ups look a shade too competitive at the fancied end to me.

PROSPECTS

My stats are good for the win as regards Love Dubai and Thabaat, less so on Alambic but I have not gone the whole hog on the numbers. It will hurt if the day goes badly but it will not be a disaster.

Results of bets for Sun 3rd Sep 2006

Day154Month6Week1.3
Phase 06B Day34

Financial Summary E&OE:-

C/F to Sep Week 1.4 (Day155):

OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) gain = +55 points @ an average of  +2/day ...

including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +175 points @ an average of +c5/day

Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep 2 (2) from 3 in Sep.

Rows 1&2 - No qualifier
Bet: Ad hoc Supplementary Short-list Combo

Added: Small win bet on YOUNG BERTIE 240 Ling. to top up bet to bookie's min bet/LOST     OVERALL -1

Row 3

310 Ling. DIYSEM F/c 10/11 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20%: 1.39 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 3.00 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.67/WON

Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo (as a Win single as there is no other qualifier), Total & Xtra Combos     BASIC PLAN +7

Naps I

Ling: DIYSEM - see above/Won

Worc: ALLABOVEBOARD F/c 8/15/WON

Bets: Basic, Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, but in this case an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps II

Font: MAMBO SUN F/c 7/2/2ND

Ling: AL HAZIM F/c 15/8-LOST

Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -3 

Place Only I - on Row 3 and

Font: ALLABOVEBOARD/Won

Ling: AL HAZIM-Lost

Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only II - on all, or from,

Ling: BALTIC BELLE/2ND

Worc: LADINO/2ND - SALHOOD/2ND

Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.21]

Fancies

350 Worc. ORION EXPRESS/3RD

Bet: Tiny Place Only     OVERALL EVEN [+0.25]

My Lay bets - None contemplated

Tips

A word to hand on Ling. GIMASHA/WON - MISS SAAFEND PLAZA/2ND - no bet

Bets: Tiny win (maybe)     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.25)]

Main Win tip was GIMASHA F/c 4/1/WON

I went the 'stakes adjusted' route. 1/3rd of 1/20th of bank to Win, the rest to Place

Added: ELEMENT OF DISGUISE 200 Clai. Lately 2/1/LOST

ALI OLAH 932 Elli(USA) - Late result - see tomorrow

Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (0.45)]

PROSPECTS

No major bets except the main Tip.

OVERALL +28 (including BASIC PLAN +2)

Result of bets for Sat 2nd Sep 2006
Day153Month6Week1.2
Phase 06B Day33

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Sep Week 1.3 (Day154):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) gain = +27 points @ an average of  +1/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +173 points @ an average of +c5/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B:
In Aug 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep 1 (1) from 2 in Sep.

 PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points

Rows 1&2 - No qualifier

Ad hoc Supplementary: Short-list Combo (new)     OVERALL +13

Row 3

230 Thir. HADAHOO F/c 11/8 Min value odds according to my ‘odds configuration’ stat (+20%) = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.59 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79/WON

330 Stra. IS IT ME F/c 1/3 Min val odds 2.20 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.32 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70/WON

*350 Hayd. STRIVING STORM F/c 1/7 Min val odds 4W1L (I call it 3.00) New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.59 (Sample 132 races), Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.00 (sample only 12 races)/WON

*NOTEWORTHY: Previously, this would have been in Row 1 or 2, but I have decided to automatically put long odds-on shots in Row 3 where they attract no win bets

Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN +73

Naps I

STRIVING STORM – see above/Won

Bets: Basic, Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +42

Naps II

400 Thir. ARCH OF TITUS F/c 11/8/NON RUN

Bet: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +20

Place Only I – on Row 3 and

Thir: ARCH OF TITUS/NON RUN – TAGULA BAY/NON RUN

Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II

Kemp: BODES GALAXY/LOST

Stra: ARM AND A LEG/PU (when appearing to have a chance)

Thir: RIBH/LOST

Wolv: MARMOOQ/WON

Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Fancies

Thir: EMERALD WILDERNESS F/c 5/2/NON RUN

Stra: ALRAUNE F/c 11/2/LOST

Bets: Place Only Basic     OVERALL EVEN [-O.25]

My Lay bets – None contemplated

Tips

Yesterday’s late result: COPING WITH DAVID (USA)/LOST

DIAMOND JOSH 730 Wolv. But no bet, I think/LOST – no bet

READY FOR SPRING 240 Kemp. Springer today, but no bet/LOST – no bet

The Lay tip to hand is REVERENCE 215 Hayd. There is too much support for it to win for my taste at present. No bet/HRS WON – no bet

Another Lay tip I have to hand is for ST ANDREWS 245 Hayd. No bet. Likes heavy ground too much for me [Wrong decision]/HRS LOST

The major Win tip is AMADEUS WOLF F/c 7/2/3RD

Bet: Small win, balance Place Only to 5% of bank

Disappointing Tote gain this time - less than 10% of that from Betfair     [OVERALL +3]

Today’s gain is the classic Basic Plan result except insofar as a couple of non runners were included in the multiples (Bet365 treats these as having won @ zero return.)

OVERALL +153 (including BASIC PLAN +137)

Bets for Fri 1st Sep 2006
Day152Month6Week1.1
Phase 06B Day32

Financial Summary E&OE:-
B/F to Sep Week 1.1 (Day152):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -105 points @ an average of –c3/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +43 points @ an average of +c1/day
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points

Gain-days in Phase 06A:
11 Overall from 29 bet-days in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Gain-days in Phase 06B:
15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days in Aug.

Rows 1 - No qualifier

Row 2

As there is not much happening today, Supplementary Xtra Combo on Place Only 1 & II qualifiers grouped together

Due to a non-runner, I have elevated MANHASSET INDIAN to here from Row 3/LOST

Bet: Basic, Place Only, Remedial Supplementary (9th rung) + Mop Up

Row 3

230 Hayd. MANHASSET INDIAN/Lost F/c 5/4 Min value odds according to my ‘odds configuration’ stat (+20%) = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.59 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70/

Bets: 123 Combo (a Win bet today as there is no other qualifier), Total Combo

Naps I

MANHASSET INDIAN - see above/Lost

Bet: Basic

Naps II

Chep: ZIBELINE (Double stake)/3RD

Hayd: MANHASSET INDIAN/Lost

Bets: Total Combo

Place Only I – on Row 3

Bet: Basic

Place Only II

Chep: AUSSIE CRICKET/2ND

Kemp: MONZANTE/WON

Bets: Basic

Fancies

440 Hayd. WANNABE POSH F/c 9/4

Bet: Place Only

My Lay bets – None contemplated

Tips

Added: CRIMSON'S TAG Arli(RSA) 11/2 earlier

COPING WITH DAVID 737 Elli(USA) F/c 5/1

Bets: Tiny win

I have an EW word on ZOMERLUST 335 Hayd.

Bet: Tiny win

The Lay tip to hand is TAGULA SUNRISE 335 Hayd.

Bet: I don’t like to see a Lay selection in Racing Post’s Selection Box Napped to win. I won’t chance a Lay bet. But I think the selection may well lose its race

The main Win tip to hand is ACROBATIC 450 Kemp.

Bet: I have gone the 'stat adjusted' stakes route again. Tiny win, the balance Place Only to 1/2 the new standard base bet size (1/20th of bank)

PROSPECTS

Did not find much to back. A fairly light betting day.