Diary for May 08 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +16 pts [within OVERALL -10]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
My short-list is COURT OF APPEAL/WON, CEDAR MOUNTAIN/WON, MUMBLES HEAD/2ND & MY IMMORTAL/WON (Row 3). My stats are mostly encouraging for the wins, least so about Court of Appeal (61W87L), but there are other exceptions, notably weak majority stats, which I'm ignoring today. I am not confident, therefore. It is quite possible these four could merely place or lose. I've not made a huge commitment of funds overall, however. The day could go either way. Would have been 'the right way' if Contact Dancer had not fallen near the end against My Immortal & if Mumbles Head had not sustained injury near the end of his race - I'd put in a strongish gamble on Contact D. that 2nd at least would be achieved. That's racing for you over obstacles, I guess. But again, so typical of what happens in an adverse period of results!
Summary Day 038 C/F to May 09 (Month02Wk2.2Phase07ADay39) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -561 ... within OVERALL Deficit -845 @ ave. of -c22/day O/A; 03 Overall win-days so far in May;14 Overall win-days in April, mainly small - a disappointing start to the financial year.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: The Combos (123, Xtra & 1/2 share of the - new - "Diminished Total," the latter being 123 again + Naps II) + Xtra/s BASIC PLAN +7 - See below re Combo II(Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Supplementary bets: Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Supplementary Mop Ups, Remedial Supplementaries (starting on 9th rung) on CEDAR MOUNTAIN/Won & MUMBLES HEAD/2nd finished lame, Mistake/s: Too much put on Contact Dancer To Place [-3], Omitted to get match on winner (Tan Bonita) [Not quantified], Accounting discrepancy [Negligible] [OVERALL +3]
Row 3
230 SoutA. CEDAR MOUNTAIN/Won F/c 11/10 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.80 Old odds stat stakes reducer x 0.64
250 Kels. MY IMMORTAL/Won F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.30 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 3.54 Old odds stat stakes reducer x 0.72
325 Kels. MUMBLES HEAD/2nd F/c 4/9 Min val odds + 20% = 1.61 New odd stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.67 Old odds stat stakes reducer x 0.72
635 Catt. COURT OF APPEAL F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.72 New odd stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 2.20
Bets: Token Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +4
Place Only I - On Row 3 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II - CONTACT DANCER/FELL booked to win or place, KING BARRY/WON Unfortunate faller from my point of view - the least lucrative combination succeeded of these selections - Bets: Basic [OVERALL -32]
Naps I
CEDAR MOUNTAIN/Won - Bets: Token Basic Win & Place Only + Mop Ups BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II
340 SoutA: LUCKY LOVER/WON F/c 6/4 805 550 Exet: IN THE LEAD/BROKE DOWN (Double stake) F/c 13/8 SoutA: RACCOON/WON F/c 3/1 - Bet: Token Basic Win/Token Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.10]
Place Only III/Naps
SIR ORPEN/LOST, IN THE LEAD/pu (Double stake), SCOTS GREY/2ND, CEDAR MOUNTAIN/Won, TAN BONITA/WON - not matched, RASLAN/WON, GO SOLO/2ND - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN -2
A) Miscellaneous Tips:
(i) No Main tip [Bets typically (against advice) @ 2 pts (for 'large' field) split between a tiny Win bet and the balance To Place OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: No tips - Bets: Tiny Place Only [OVERALL N/A ] (iii) Place Only Aust/Free "Bet4Place" tips (overnight): No tips [OVERALL N/A]; (iv) Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise if any/on F/c Odds): IR(Fair) MAUCAILLOU/PLACED F/c 2/1/SOUTH WEST ONE/WON F/c 5/2, CALL BEWLEY/LOST F/c 6/4, Fr(Long): SUDAN/LOST, ROYAL AND REGAL/2ND - Bets: Small Place Only [OVERALL +1] (v) Derby Anti-Post: AUTHORISED 6/1 & STRATEGIC PRINCE 14/1 (SportingOdds) [OVERALL N/A AS YET]
B) Processed:
Combo III: No bet [OVERALL N/A]
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A] (ii) Sporting Post (RSA) Selections: Keni: STATE CROWN/WON MY ONE AND EIGHT EW/PLACED F/c 5/1 - Bets: Small Win, very occasional EW Am beginning to get results by being more selective [OVERALL +2] (iii) RP Selection Boxes: TAN BONITA/Won - failed to match bet, RACCOON/Won, LUCKY LOVER/Won/ROWAN LODGE/LOST, IN THE LEAD/pu, BLUE DENIM/LOST - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL -1 ]