Diary for May 07 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +24 pts [within OVERALL +43]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
My short-list is LUCARNO/WON, GRADUATION/WON (Row 2) & PHOENIX TOWER/WON (Row 1 - elevated from Row 2). My stats are quite encouraging for wins. But there are an awful lot of losers mixed in with the winners - the majorities are not overwhelmingly in favour of wins. It is quite possible these three could merely place or lose.
Summary Day 037 C/F to May 08 (Month02Wk2.1Phase07ADay38) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -577 ... within OVERALL Deficit -835 @ ave. of -c23/day O/A; 03 Overall win-days so far in May;14 Overall win-days in April, mainly small - a disappointing start to the financial year.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: The Combos (123, Xtra & 3/4 share of the - new - "Diminished Total," the latter being 123 again + Naps II) + Xtra/s if any BASIC PLAN +9 - See below re Combo II(Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1
420 Wind. PHOENIX TOWER/Won F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.98 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.37 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 - Bets: Token Basic BASIC PLAN +3
Row 2
330 Kemp. LUCARNO/Won F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.84 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.49 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55
410 Warw. GRADUATION/Won F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 1.84 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.49 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55
Bets: Token Basic + Capped Token FS (starting on 11th rung @ reduced escalation-ing factor of 1.4) + Mop Ups, Capped Basic Place Only, Doubs/Trebs (with Row 1 when possible), Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Supplementary Mop Ups, Mistake/s: so far an annoying slip on the Australian racing bets, stakes juxtaposed on two, resulting in a small extra loss; also I overlooked to get half my GRADUATION Win bet on Betfair matched [Not quantified], Accounting discrepancy [Negligible] BASIC PLAN +3 [plus OVERALL +27]
Row 3 - No qualifier
Place Only I - On Row 2 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0/29]
Place Only II
Newc: DAN DARE/WON F/c 5/4, JUST JAMES/WON F/c 5/2, BAHAMA BAILEYS/WON F/C 6/4 - Bets: Token Basic [OVERALL +1]
Naps I
As per Rows 1 & 2 - Bets: Token Basic Win & Place Only + Mop Ups BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II
Newc: MARK OF LOVE/3RD F/c 6/4 (Triple stake) - Bet: Token Basic Win/Token Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.03]
Place Only III/Naps
As per Naps I & II (Triple stake on Mark Of Love) - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +6
A) Miscellaneous Tips:
(i) The Main tip was LADY STARDUST/LOST F/c 5/1 - Bets (against advice) @ 2 pts (for 'large' field) split between a tiny Win bet and the balance To Place [OVERALL -3] (ii) RP International Zone: 1100pm USA(Arli) CAT HOP F/c 5/2/BET WON yesterday - Bets: Tiny Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (+0.04) ] (iii) Place Only Aust/Free "Bet4Place" tips (overnight): 2PL(incl.2W)2L [OVERALL EVEN (-0.43)]; (iv) Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise if any/on F/c Odds): IR(Curr) 515 WOODBINE WILLY/NO RUN F/c 5/2 IR(Down) 235 ORPAILLEUR/LOST F/c 7/4 505 ANOTHER BIFFO/FELL F/c 1/3 IR(Lime) 455 GLENDUFF BRIDGE/2ND F/c 4/6 Warw: 310 TEASING/LOST F/c 6/1 - Bets: Small Place Only/Tiny Win on Teasing (4321 bet) [OVERALL -2 ] (v) Derby Anti-Post: AUTHORISED 6/1 & STRATEGIC PRINCE 14/1 (SportingOdds) [OVERALL N/A]
B) Processed:
Combo III: No bet [OVERALL N/A]
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A] (ii) Sporting Post (RSA) Selections: Flam Race 3 GOLDEN STORM F/c 3/1 R4 HOME AND HOSED F/c 3/1 R7 GATES HEAD F/c 11/10/ALL LOST - Bets: Small Win, very occasional EW [OVERALL -3] (iii) RP Selection Boxes: MARK OF LOVE/3rd, JENNIFER'S JOY/Won, ZIFAAF/Lost/WAYMARK/2ND, ROODOLPH/LOST, TEN DOWN/WON, MR CELLOPHANE/LOUPHOLE/BOTH LOST - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL -1]