Diary for May 05 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -9 pts [within OVERALL -102]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
My stats endorse a short-list of MONSOON WEDDING/LOST (Row 2), SPINNING LUCY/2ND (Row 3), BEAMISH PRINCE/LOST & ECHELON/WON (Place Only I). My Odds Configuration stats are not terrific for the win, 50/50 at best (mostly worse), except for my one on Monsoon Wedding which, itself, is no more than modestly encouraging. Today could prove to be trappy? It was on the above, I guess.
I found some peripheral opportunities but my instinct tells me the day could end up a wipe-out, cash flow buster, sort of one. So it proved, anyway as regards the major-ish bets. The peripherals did all right.
I'm depending on Monsoon Wedding, Spinning Lucy & Echelon to at least Place. If they do, I should come out all right. Other than collectively, elsewhere I've not risked much.
Summary Day 035 C/F to May 06 (Month02Wk1.6Phase07ADay36) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -614 ... within OVERALL Deficit -892 @ ave. of -c25/day O/A; 01 Overall win-day in May;14 Overall win-days in April, mainly small - a disappointing start to the financial year.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: The Combos (123, Xtra & the new Diminished Total) + Xtras BASIC PLAN -8
See below re Combo III (Miscellaneous tips). "Combo II (Naps Table)" discontinued for the time being.
Row 1 No qualifier
Row 2
225 Thir. MONSOON WEDDING/Lost F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.82 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.52 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.70 - Bets: Token Basic + 10th rung (but Capped) FS + Mop Ups, Token Basic place Only, Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo,' Supplementary Mop Ups on all the short-list, Added: Ad hoc Supplementary 3x3x1 Multiple of Doubles & Trebles on the two races I had 3 selections/qualifiers in + Monsoon Wedding, Mistake/s: There were several significant ones but, overall, I ended up with a gain over them [+11], Accounting discrepancy [+3.47], BASIC PLAN -4 [plus OVERALL -101]
Row 3
245 NwmK. ECHELON/Won F/c 10/11 Infiltrated on Support (from amongst my short list of Naps Table tipsters)
520 Good. SPINNING LUCY/2nd F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 1.90 (based on only 14 results: 8W6L); New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96; Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.26 - Bets: Token Basic Place Only + Mop Ups BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.35]
Place Only I - on Row 2 and
ECHELON/Won, BEAMISH PRINCE/Lost & SPINNING LUCY/2nd - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -2
Place Only II
FRESH AIR AND FUN/WON - Bets: Token Basic [OVERALL EVEN (+0.08)]
Naps I
ECHELON/Won (Double stake) & SPINNING LUCY/2nd - Bets: Token Basic Win & Place Only + Mop Ups BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.48]
Naps II
ECHELON /Won- Bet: Token Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.17]
Place Only III/Naps
HAATEF/DIAMOND TYCOON/ADAGIO/ALL LOST, ECHELON/Won (Double stake), SERENGETI/WON, SPINNING LUCY/2nd & MALCHEEK/WON - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +5
A) Miscellaneous Tips:
(i) Main tip was ADAGIO F/c 3/1 - Bets (against advice) @ 2 pts (for 'large' field) split between a tiny Win bet and the (Doubled) balance To Place [OVERALL -4] (ii) RP International Zone: RSA(Turf) CHANT DE NUIT/WON F/c 3/1 - Bets: Tiny Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (+0.18) ] (iii) Place Only Aust/Free "Bet4Place" tips (overnight): The advice is 'don't bet on meetings having Heavy or Dead 5+ going,' so I did not go with all of the 14 tips provided last night. In fact, the results on the 14 were not too bad: 9PL(incl.4W)5L. I backed 6: 3PL(incl.2W)3L. It is ironic that I got lumbered with as many as 3 losers of the 5 in the original list - but it's just the sort of thing that routinely happens in an adverse period [OVERALL +4]; (iv) Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise if any/on F/c Odds): USA(Chuc) RAGS TO RICHES F/c 5/2/WON yesterday, IR(Kilb) 515 MISS MASON/WON, 545 LIQUID LUNCH/WON, 745 RESTORATION/WON; Pricewise: HAATEF/Lost, WYATT EARP/FULLANDBY/BOTH LOST, ADAGIO/Lost - Bets: Small Place Only [OVERALL -1] (v) Anti-Post: ADAGIO/Lost [OVERALL EVEN -1]
B) Processed:
Combo III: EW Doubles & Treble [OVERALL +5]
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A] (ii) Sporting Post (RSA) Selections: Turf: 1105 KISS FOR KATE/WON; Grey: 455 APPLE OF MY EYE/WON, 530 LEMONGRASS/WON - Bets: Small Win, very occasional EW [OVERALL +1] (iii) RP Selection Boxes: All, or from (in no particular order), YANKEE HOLIDAY/2ND, SOPRANO/WON, OLDRIK/LOST, MALCHEEK/WON/ANGARIC/2ND/SURWAKI/LOST, FREGATE ISLAND/WON, PRINCE AMONG MEN/2ND, NORTH ISLAND/3RD, LITTLE BROWN BEAR/LOST, BOSCOBEL/2ND, LONGUEVILLE MANOR/WON - Bets: Basic Place Only I'd intended to do a "4321" Win bet as well on the latter but forgot [OVERALL +1]