2006-Oct-6
Diary for Oct 6 2006
Day187Month7Week1.6 (Phase 06B Day67)
PROSPECTS
My short-listed runners (4) enjoy encouraging stats today for wins (not that this guarantees anything) and are quite strong "consensus favourites" (a degree or too less than emphatic). In nearly every other respect, this looks to be a "Laura Luck" day to me: CF how few qualifiers I've found for my "Place Only" rows.
Aside from the major Tip (QUEEN'S BEST/BOMBED), and despite my having gone with a Star, Token FS and Token Remedial Supplementary (9th rung) bets, not much is at stake today.
OUTCOME: "...you lose some." OVERALL -54 points (including BASIC PLAN -2 points)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 1.7 Day188 (Phase B: Day 68)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -209 points @ an average of -c3/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = -1 points @ an average of -c0/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 3(2) [+97]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Row 1
210 Carl. PASS IT ON/WON F/c 1/3 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 1.64 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.58 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Star (lower level) + Mop Up, 2-Row [Sequential: changed 2nd bet to tiny win bet due to loss of confidence in My Good Lord i.e., gain on 1st bet 'banked' as an off-set aganst possible loss in the 2nd (Correct decision)] Double (with Naps I), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2, an enhancement of the existing Sequential Double as there is no 3rd qualifier - ditto above), Place Only, the 3 Combos (123, Total & Xtra) BASIC PLAN -1
Row 2
315 Carl. MY GOOD LORD/2ND F/c Evs. Min val odds + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.08 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.29 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Basic, Token FS + (standard) Ad hoc Mop Up, Token Remedial Supplementary (9th rung) + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1), Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras if any, Supplementary Short-List Combo (WDoubles, EWTrebles,4F accum.), Supplementary (Mistake): tiny Place Only on SCHINKEN OTTO/LOST
I counter Layed My Good Lord & rebacked to win in an effort to benefit from a better price and lost myself (oops) an extra 10 points BASIC PLAN -1 plus OVERALL -23
Row 3
200 LingAW. SWIFT CUT/WON F/c 11/8 Min val odds + 20% = 2.68 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08
525 Carl. THAI VANGO/2ND F/c Evs. New odds stat stakes adjuster x Zero Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08 No need to halve stakes as this is a bumper
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.37]
Naps I
MY GOOD LORD/2nd - see above
Bets: Basic, Total Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Naps II - No selection
Place Only I - on the 3 main Rows
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +4
Place Only II
Carl: EL ANDALUZ/LOST
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.25]
Fancies
Carl: SCHINKEN OTTO/LOST
Bet: Tiny win
York: KAFUU/WON - GEE DEE NEN/4TH
Bet: Tiny EWDouble
York: WANCHAI LAD/LOST/ELKHORN/LOST
LingAW: WHAZZIS/2ND/EKHTIHAAR/WON
Bet: Tiny 2x2EWDoubles OVERALL -1
My Lay bets - None
Tips
ESPIAL F/c 2/1 807 Laur(USA/WON Late result from yesterday
UNTOUCHED TALENT F/c 5/2 Race 9 Keen(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
ANYTHING ELSE Lately 14/1 1250 Arli(RSA/LOST
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL +1]
Major Lay tip to hand is ARMY OF ANGEL/HRS WON F/c 11/4 325 York
Once again, the level of Support for this runner is too significant for my comfort. It may well lose, I fully accept, but 'no bet.' Correct decision, this time. Thankfully, I resisted the temptation to lay, after all (the main win tip being a major market rival in the same race) [OVERALL N/A]
Major Tip to hand is QUEEN'S BEST/Lost F/c 3/1 325 York.
Modest Win, balance Place Only, to total 40 points I wish I had put a 20 point ceiling based on indications in my own preparatory work on the day, that I ignored against policy, which made this look a potentially dodgy selection [OVERALL -40]
Good words on SAMURAI WAY/LOST - no bet - LUNA LANDING/LOST - no bet
Bets: Tiny win (maybe not) [OVERALL N/A]
0 comments | add a comment