Diary for Apr 16 2007
Bets on Mon Apr 16 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +3 pts [within OVERALL +12]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
Short-list of 3: BRAVE REBELLION/WON (Row 2), DUKE ORSINO/FELL & TEN DOWN/2ND (Place Only I). Not sure about today. Could turn out 'trappy.'
Summary Day 016 C/F to April 17 (Month01Wk3.3 Phase07ADay17) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -485 ... within OVERALL Deficit -494 @ ave. of -c31/day O/A = 10 win days so far this month but mainly small
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, Half Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN +1
See below re Combo II (Naps Table) [No Combo III (Miscellaneous tips) today]
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
4.35 Weth. BRAVE REBELLION/Won F/c 4/6 Min value Odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.82 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.58 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.64 - Bets: Token Basic & 2nd rung Token FS + Mop Ups, '2-Row Doubs/Trebs' (tiny enhancements of the Basic bet today), Basic Place Only, Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo,' Chanced a 2nd rung Ad Hoc Remedial Supplementary on TEN DOWN/2nd, Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [Negligible] BASIC PLAN +1 [plus OVERALL EVEN (+0.11)]
Row 3
Wind: TEN DOWN/2nd F/c Evs By Infiltration on Support (1xNap,2xNBs) - Bets: Token Win, Token Basic Place Only, Mop Ups BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.01]
Place Only I - On Row 2 and
250 Weth. DUKE ORSINO/Fell F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.33 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.33 to Place Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.64 (but as non-qualifier for Rows 1-3, I am reversing the stats for stakes adjustment); Wind: TEN DOWN/2nd F/c Evs Min val odds + 20% = 1.43 to Place New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 3.83 (based on 29 results: 23W6L - but I am reversing the stats for stakes adjustment) - Bets: Token Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.14]
Place Only II
Wolv: MAGIC AMOUR/3RD F/c 7/4 - Bets: Basic [OVERALL EVEN (+0.14)]
Combo II - Half Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.19]
Naps I
TEN DOWN/2nd & (triple staked) BRAVE REBELLION/Won - Bets: Token Basic + Mop Up, Token Basic Place Only, Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 when possible, today an enhancement of the existing Double) BASIC PLAN +2
Naps II - No selection
A) Miscellaneous Tips:
No Combo III today [OVERALL N/A]
(i) No Main tip [Bets (against advice) split small/miniscule Win + mainly Place Only @ a Total of 1 1/2 (for large field) or 2 1/2 pts (small field) i.e. 5,6 & 8/12 incl. runners deemed "Small", 7 and more than 12 deemed "Large" OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: None [OVERALL N/A] (iii) Place Only: Aust/Free "Bet4Place" tips: Overnight: 1W2L Bets: Small Show [OVERALL -2]; (iv) Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds): Tram(IR): 620 VISO/WON F/c 11/10 (if the Reserve MIDNIGHT TRAVELLER/NO RUN does not run), 650 JOYS ISLAND F/c 5/4/Late result - see tomorrow, FAYR STAR F/c 3/1/Late result - see tomorrow [OVERALL EVEN (+0.08)]
B) Processed:
(i) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category at Weth: BRAVE REBELLION/Won/LORD COLLINWOOD/2ND (83W36L) IMPS WAY/WON/Added: SPRING MARGOT/LOST (33W27L) Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +4] (ii) RP Selection Boxes:IMPS WAY/Won F/c 11/10 [OVERALL EVEN (+0.01)] (ii) Sporting Post (RSA) Flam: Race 1 GOLD COURT/WON F/c Evs, R3 SALLY ROSE/WON F/c Evs, R5 HE'S MY BROTHER/WON F/c 4/1 R6 GREATBALLSOF FIRE/LOST F/c 4/1 R8 QUICK LUCK/2ND F/c 7/1 - Bets: Win (Place Only not avail.) [OVERALL +6]
Bets (both sections): Mix of small/miniscule Win, and/or Place/Show, and/or the occasional EW