Diary for Apr 15 2007
Bets on Sun Apr 15 2007 Sunday Mode applied selectively
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +51 pts [within OVERALL +75]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
Short-list of 4: PICACHO/WON & BACKBORD/WON (Row 2), NATIAIN/WON & AHMEDY/WON (Row 3). Good stats except that my Sundays Majority stat on Picacho is only 50/50ish for the win.
This appears, on paper, to be a day to 'go with my numbers' but, having lost 'intermediary Scope,' I can't. In consequence, I've 'gone token' on some bets. I am expecting to do all right, anyway.
Summary Day 015 C/F to April 16 (Month01Wk3.2 Phase07ADay16) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -488 ... within OVERALL Deficit -506 @ ave. of -c34/day O/A = 9 win days so far this month but mainly small
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo (including Win Trebles today), Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, 4/5ths Total Combo (including Win Trebles today) BASIC PLAN +32 See below re Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips) today
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
210 Worc. PICACHO/Won F/c 1/3 Min value Odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.34 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 9.00 (based on 20 results: 18W2L) Old Sundays odds stat stakes reducer x 0.96
310 Worc. BACKBORD/Won F/c 2/5 Min val odds + 200% = 1.24 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.35 Old Sundays odds stat stakes enhancer x 4.57 (based on 39 results: 32W7L) - Bets: Token Basic & 6th rung (1st bet) Token FS + Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubs/Trebs (Sequential Doubles today), Basic Place Only, Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo,' Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, 5th rung (assumed for 1st bet) Remedial Supplementaries on Row 3, Mistake/s: There were a couple, by omission [Not quantified], Discrepancy [-0.37] BASIC PLAN +6 [plus OVERALL +12]
Row 3
250 MarkR. AHMEDY/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.61 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.63 Old Sundays odds stat stakes enhancer x 4.57 (as above)
430 Kels. NATIAIN/Won F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.44 (based on 15 results: 11W4L) New odds stakes enhancer (General) x 1.83 Old Sundays odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.90 (based on 29 results: 19W10L) - Bets: Token Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only I - On Rows 2 & 3 and
Kels: LUCKY NELLERIE/WON (Xtra Combo only); MarkR: PAY ATTENTION/WON, SEAFORD BOGIE/LOST & FELINIOUS/NO RUN - Bets: Token Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.05]
Place Only II
Kels: MR PREACHER MAN/NO RUN/HARRY FLASHMAN/WON - Bets: Basic [OVERALL +1]
Combo II - 1/5th Total Combo BASIC PLAN +5
Naps I
PICACHO/Won (Double stake) - Bets: Token Basic + Mop Up, Token Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +6
Naps II - No selection
A) Miscellaneous Tips:
Combo III (Added) EW4-Fold on Scot(RSA) selections + Xtras [OVERALL EVEN (-0.24)]
(i) No Main tip [Bets (against advice) split small/miniscule Win + mainly Place Only @ a Total of 1 1/2 (for large field) or 2 1/2 pts (small field) i.e. 5,6 & 8/12 incl. runners deemed "Small", 7 and more than 12 deemed "Large" OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: 125 Scot(RSA) ESPOIR DE LA PAIX/2ND F/c 7/1 220 Long(FR) MANDALI/WON 815 Keen(USA) VICTORY DESIGN/2ND F/c 3/1 [OVERALL +1] (iii) Place Only: Aust/Free "Bet4Place" tips: Overnight: 5PL(incl. 3W)3L (Small Place Only bets) [OVERALL +5]; (iv) Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds): Long(Fr) 250 LEGERETA/LOST 320 BATTLE PAINT/2ND 350 FRISTON FOREST/LOST, Tram(IR) 345 ARC ENCIEL/LOST - no bet F/c 1/2 [OVERALL -1]
B) Processed:
(i) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category at Kels: LUCKY NELLERIE/Won (76W55L) NATIAIN/Won (88W66L) MR PREACHER MAN/No run/HARRY FLASHMAN/Won (88W66L); MarkR: AHMEDY/Won (76W55L) PAY ATTENTION/Won (88W66L) SEAFORD BOGIE/LOST (Correction: 10W21L); Worc: PICACHO/Won (1W0L) BACKBORD/Won (Revised: 83W36L) BE TELLING/NO RUN (3W10L) Bets: Basic Place Only (Win bet on Lucky Nellerie) [OVERALL +8] (ii) RP Selection Boxes: Worc: BE TELLING/No run F/c 11/4 [OVERALL N/A] (ii) Sporting Post (RSA) Scot: Race 1 THANDOLWANI/WON F/c 6/10 R2 MODEL OF LOVE/LOST F/c 33/10 R5 MIDNIGHT MODEL/LOST F/c 7/2 R8 GREEK HERO/2ND F/c 22/10 [OVERALL EVEN (-0.16)]
Bets (both sections): Mix of small/miniscule Win, and/or Place/Show, and/or the occasional EW