Diary for Apr 14 2007
Bets on Sat Apr 14 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +27 pts [within OVERALL +32]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
Short-list of 4: SUNLEY SHINES/WON (Row 2), MISTER HARDY/WON (Row 3), HUCKING HARMONY/2ND & CELESTIAL HALO/WON (Place Only I). Good stats except partly Hucking Harmony & Celestial Halo. Modest stakes.
Summary Day 014 C/F to April 15 (Month01Wk3.1 Phase07ADay15) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -539 ... within OVERALL Deficit -581 @ ave. of -c42/day O/A = 8 win days so far this month but mainly small
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo (Win Double today), Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, 2/3rds Total Combo (enhancement of Win Double today) BASIC PLAN +18 See below re Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips)
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
300 Chep. SUNLEY SHINES/Won F/c 2/7 Min value Odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.35 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 8.00 (based on 18 results: 16W2L) Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 2.12 - Bets: Token Basic, 2-Row Doubs/Trebs (today tiny enhancements of the Basic bet), Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo,' Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, Mistakes by omission: (1) I failed to ensure that the unmatched half of my Betfair bet on Sunley Shines got matched; (2) Bets missed (see Tips section) [Not calculated], Discrepancy [+1] BASIC PLAN +6 [plus OVERALL +2]
Row 3
345 Newc. MISTER HARDY/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.99 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.63 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.61 - Bets: Tiny Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - On Row 3 and
Chep: SUNLEY SHINES (for the Xtra Combo only); LingA: HUCKING HARMONY/2nd; Newc: CELESTIAL HALO/Won F/c 4/5 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Chep: JORIS DE VONNAS/WON F/c 5/1 - Bets: Basic [OVERALL +1]
Combo II - 1/3rd Total Combo + Accum. equivalent BASIC PLAN +2
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
MISTER HARDY/Won - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.16]
A) Miscellaneous Tips:
Combo III EW4-Fold/EW7-Fold Accums. on RSA tips + Xtras [OVERALL EVEN (-0.40) ]
(i) Main tip TWIST MAGIC/WON F/c 9/4 - Bets (against advice) split small/miniscule Win + mainly Place Only @ a Total of 1 1/2 (for large field) or 2 1/2 pts (small field) i.e. 5,6 & 8/12 incl. runners deemed "Small", 7 and more than 12 deemed "Large" [OVERALL +5] (ii) RP International Zone: Keen(USA) DON'TWAIT TOOLONG/LOST yesterday [OVERALL EVEN (-0.07)] (iii) Place Only: Aust/Free "Bet4Place" tips: Overnight: 7PL(incl.4W)6L (Small Place Only bets) [OVERALL -3]; (iv) Miscellaneous cards (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds): Misc: POINT BARROW/LOST/MCKELVEY/2ND/DUN DOIRE/LOST; Pricewise: HEDGEHUNTER/LOST/MCKELVEY/2nd [OVERALL EVEN (-0.25)]
B) Processed:
(i) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category at Chep: SUNLEY SUNRISE/Won (87W66L) *MAGO SANTHAI/3RD/MISSIS POTTS/WON/PRINCE ARY/2ND (73W55L) *Annoyingly I missed this race because I re-started late after a rest [OVERALL +1] (ii) RP Selection Boxes: Chep: SYROCO/2ND INHERENT/WON/COMMANDER VIC/3RD Newc: HIGHLAND LEGACY/LOST [OVERALL EVEN (+0.05)] 2(ii) Sporting Post (RSA): Newm: SUPPER CLUB/2ND LIONS BLOOD/WON BOUND TO TRAVEL/WON MISTY RIVER/WON ROMAN FORUM EW/LOST SHOOT FOR THE MOON/3RD EURIPIDES/LOST [OVERALL EVEN (+0.12)]
Bets (both sections): Mix of small/miniscule Win, and/or Place/Show, and/or the occasional EW