2006-Oct-5
Diary for Oct 5 2006
Day186Month7Week1.5 (Phase 06B Day66)
PROSPECTS
Today my short-list numbers 5, enjoying supporting stats which are not that persuasive, including 2 cases (SHARAAB/2ND & NESNAAS/3RD) of my least favourite 'odds configuration - of' "6 runners F/c @ under 14/1: 22W43L" - which always rings alarm bells in me (even though it but affirms the oft quoted stat amongst many punters, I think, that "on average 1 in 3 favourites wins") - for I like my qualifiers each to have a better historically-based expectation than this stat offers prospectively. Consequently, I am unconfident and have restricted 3 just to "Row 3," 1 to "Place Only I" and 1 to "Fancies."
Not much staked, I shall feel fortunate to have attained any level of gain at all today and not worry about any loss on Basic Plan. The major tip, however, will gobble up 40 points if it fails to place. On the latter, fingers and toes firmly crossed!
OUTCOME: OVERALL +50 points (including BASIC PLAN -3 points)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 1.6 Day187 (Phase B: Day 67)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -155 points @ an average of -c2/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +1 points @ an average of -c0/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 3(2) [+101]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Supplementary Short-List Combo (including NESNAAS/3rd & ALLABOVEBOARD/LOST) + Xtras if any,
Supplementary Total Combo (including ALLABOVEBOARD/Lost instead of the intended GRAND SHOW/WON) as I was unable to get the bookie to void the Combo that I placed with the wrong line-up Sometimes errors work in one's favour - not this time for me OVERALL -14
Row 3
230 Winc. THAT LOOK/WON F/c 4/5 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.57 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles This qualifiers was in Row 2 but I demoted it
2.40 Worc. THE KING OF ANGELS/LOST F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 2.06 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.41 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70 Halve stakes as over obstacles
420 LingAW. GRAND SHOW/Won F/c 9/4 Included due to Selection Box Support (4xNPs), ignoring this time that Newmarket has nominated another runner as the likely winner
500 Winc. SHARAAB/2nd F/c 11/10 Min val odds + 20 % = 2.51 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (123, Total & Xtra) + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN -4
Naps I
GRAND SHOW/Won - see above
Bets: Basic (Double stake), Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +4
Naps II - No selection
Place Only I - on Row 3 (except Grand Show)
Winc: ELJAY'S BOY/WON
Worc: ALLABOVEBOARD/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras if any BASIC PLAN -3
Place Only II
Worc: ROWDY YEATS/LOST/MASSIMO/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.20]
Fancies
Ling: GENUINE CALL/3RD - DESCARTES/WON
Winc: BEAUTIFUL NIGHT/2ND - NESNAAS/3rd
Bets: Tiny speculative multiple of EWDoubles, EW Trebles, 4FAccum. OVERALL +1
My Lay bets - None
Tips
TOUR DANCE F/c 15/1 Laur(USA/LOST Late result from yesterday
ESPIAL F/c 2/1 807 Laur(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
ODESSA (Currently 18/10) 110 Vaal(RSA/WON
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL +2]
Major Lay tip to hand is PENNY PARK/HRS LOST 440 Worc.
Once again, the level of Support for this runner is too significant for my comfort. It may well lose, I fully accept, but 'no bet.' Hey ho. Wrong decision again. [OVERALL N/A]
Major EW Tip to hand is TRANSVESTITE/2ND F/c 10/1 350 LingAW. 1 win and 1 place from 3 runs on All Weather tracks, I have gone tiny Win + the balance Place Only, to total 40 points. [OVERALL +64]
Good words on WAGES/2ND no bet - ALLABOVEBOARD/Lost
Bets: Tiny win (maybe not) [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]
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