Diary for Apr 05 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -9 pts [within OVERALL +5 ]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
Well, that was a short holiday. I enjoyed it, mind. Anyway, its shortness is proof positive I am addicted to horse racing after all. (Something I have always strenuously denied - up until from now.) My short-list is 3, mainly for the multiples (as usual): WHITENZO/WON & RED BROOK LAD/3RD (Row 1) & ALFIE'S SUN/WON (Row 3). My stats are excellently encouraging across the board but least so on Alfie's Sun, not that these guarantee anything. (Indeed they have worked against me to a degree these past days, putting me onto the wrong runners to major on. Will it be the same story today?) I guess, yes. On reflection, perhaps Red Brook Lad should have been in Row 2 but it would not have made much difference @ current bank levels.
The only negative I see is that Alfie's Sun is significantly Opposed by Liberty Ben. I shall be hoping the latter does not upset my Doubles and Treble. Not a lot in it by the end. It was Red Brook Lad did the upsetting despite trying hard to not.
Now that I have lost "Intermediary Scope," it is quite interesting to operate within the confines of existing meagrized bookie account balances - "Delta Quadrant" betting in extremis. A good discipline. I am fighting tooth and nail to avoid calling up fresh funds. I have done enough of that in the past. Enough is enough. An absorbing day's grinding out of profit without calling up much 'new' money. I had hoped I'd do better than I did, though.
Summary Day 005 C/F to April 06 (Day06 Month01Wk1.6 Phase07ADay06) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -533 ... within OVERALL Deficit -557 @ ave. of -c111/day (too much at this time)
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, 3/5th share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN -11 See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1
420 Winc. WHITENZO/Won F/c 2/5 Min value odds, according to my Odds Config. stat, + 20% = 1.36 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.67 (on 33 results: 24W9L) Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.67 (on 28 results: 22W6L)
500 Winc. RED BROOK LAD/3rd F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.97 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.22 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.21 - Bets: Token Basic & (reduced) Star (from a Token Base stake, itself cut by a quarter on Whitenzo due to no Mop Up possible), Mop Ups on Red Brook Lad, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I when possible, today a Sequential Double here), 2-Row DoubsTrebs (with Row 2 when possible, today enhancements of the Seq. Double), Token Basic Place Only on Red Brook Lad BASIC PLAN -4
Row 2 - No qualifier
Supplementary Bets: Short-list (Place Only) Combo (just Red Brook Lad, the others are in Win Only races), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions (Red Brook Lad only), (tiny) 6th rung Remedial Supplementary (from 3/4 Token Base) on ALFIE'S SUN/Won, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [+1] [OVERALL +3]
Row 3
250 Winc. ALFIE'S SUN/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.71 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28 - Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only I
RED BROOK LAD/3rd - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Ludl: WATCHALIKE/3RD; Wolv: DOLCE DOVO/2ND - Bet: Basic [OVERALL +1]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 2/5th share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
ALFIE'S SUN/Won & RED BROOK LAD/3rd - Bets: Basic Place Only on latter BASIC PLAN +1
Tips
1) (i) Main tip to hand was TIGHE CASTER/LOST (3rd) F/c 3/1 Hum: 6 runners F/c @ under 8/1 about which my past qualifiers stat reads 22W43L. At the same Odds Config., however, the stat I have is better: 53W62L. Yup. Happy to go for a Place, mainly. [Bets (against advice): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total (reduced bank) of 2 pts for '2xPlaces' race
1) (ii) Other tips for fun (at negligible risk): RP International Zone: RSA (Turf): 200 POLAR GUEST/LOST F/c 14/1 [OVERALL -2]
2) (i) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category - at Ludl: WATCHALIKE/3rd (71W55L) MY IMMORTAL/WON/SHANNON SPRINGS/2ND (76W36L) RED BROOK LAD/3rd (84W66L); at Winc: ALFIE'S SUN/Won (Win bet) (84W66L) WHITENZO/Won (Win bet) (76W36L) - Bets: Basic Place Only (except Win Only races)
2) (ii) Miscellaneous cards (Spotlight): None expected [OVERALL +12]
3) Researched selections (i) RP Selection Boxes (i) BRITAIN: 240 Wolv: ITALIAN ROMANCE/WON F/c 9/4; (ii) Sporting Post RSA: Turf (all or from) 1215 I'M HAPPY/WON F/c 5/10, 1250 THE HEIRESS/WON F/c 14/10, 125 GUARDING HARRY/LOST - no bet, 230 LIGHTNING LECTURE/LOST, 300 SURABI/2ND
Bets: Miniscule EW 4321bet on Italian Romance, tiny EWDouble on Lightning Lecture/Surabi/LOST, otherwise Small/miniscule Win, and/or Place/Show, and/or the occasional EW [OVERALL EVEN (-0.19)]