Diary for Apr 04 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -51 pts [within OVERALL: -48 ]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
My short-list is 2, mainly for the multiples (as usual). Will they merit the Selection Boxes Support they enjoy? (One didn't yesterday - and how!) They are LOVE ON SIGHT/2ND (Row 1) & CNOC MOY/WON (Place Only I).
My Majority stats are encouraging, especially about Cnoc Moy. So, too, my stats on the number of runners F/c @ under 8/1 as regards Love On Sight (but only 50/50ish on this about Cnoc Moy). My stats on results in past races by qualifiers which had the same odds configuration as these two face, are encouraging as regards Love On Sight, but there's a minority of winners as regards Cnoc Moy's (53W74L). Although Allweather, I've taken a chance locating Love On Sight in Row 1 instead of the more usual 2. Oops
My "Scope" has taken a depressing dive this past 3 days. I can't go with my numbers, or anything like, suddenly. So I'm going (Capped) with Love On Sight bets as fully as possible and will deal with the generality of other singles after that outcome is known. 'Hand to horse's mouth betting,' today, for me, I'm afraid. If the day goes badly, I shall take a holiday from racing. (That would be no bad thing at all, it being, if so, my first such in 3 1/2 years!) So, I'm now on holiday, folks! (But I may do some blog-posted miniscule betting for fun until normal service is resumed.)
Note: As the job I started with my blog diary for 2006/7 is but mid-way towards some sort of completion, I decided to carry on with a diary for 2007/8.
Summary Day 004 C/F to April 05 (Day05 Month01Wk1.5 Phase07ADay05) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -524 ... within OVERALL Deficit -562 @ ave. of -c141/day (too much for me at this time)
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: Capped 123 Combo, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, 2/5th share of (probably Token) Total Combo BASIC PLAN -2
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1
230 LingA. LOVE ON SIGHT/2nd F/c 2/5 Min value odds, according to my Odds Config. stat, + 20% = 1.38 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.52 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.25 - Bets: Capped (to a combined ceiling on Win bets of 50 pts) Basic & Capped Star + Capped Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I, today an enhancement of the Basic bets), 2-Row DoubsTrebs (with Row 2, today further enhancements of the Basic bet), Cash Flow adjusted (quasi cap) Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN -27
Row 2 - No qualifier
Supplementary Bets: Short-list (Place Only) Combo, (tiny) Ad hoc Supplementary Accum. on CNOC MOY/Won, THE LAST DROP/2ND, WEEKEND FLING/WON, LOVE ON SIGHT/2nd, RESPLENDENT ALPHA/LOST, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, Ad hoc Supplementaries on RESPLENDENT ALPHA/Lost & WEEKEND FLING/WON, Mistakes: Missed a few tiny/small bets, plus a couple of small errors [-1.18], Discrepancy [+1.63] [OVERALL EVEN (+0.17)]
Row 3
By Infiltration on Support (3xNaps,2xNBs) 500 LingA: CHNOC MOY/Won F/c 6/4 - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.15]
Place Only I - On Row 1 and
LingA: RESPLENDENT ALPHA/Lost F/c 10/11, CNOC MOY/Won F/c 6/4 Min val odds + 20% = 1.42 to Place - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.22]
Place Only II
Catt: ALWAYS BEST/WON - missed bet in error F/c 1/2 - Bet: Basic [OVERALL EVEN]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 3/5th share of (Token?) Total Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Naps I
LOVE ON SIGHT (Triple stake - not applied) - Bets: Capped Basic, Capped Place Only, Double (enhancement of the Basic bet today), 2-Row Double (with Row 1, a further enhancement of the Basic bet) BASIC PLAN -18
Naps II
LingA: RESPLENDENT ALPHA/Lost; Nott: THE LAST DROP/2nd - Bets: Basic Place Only on The Last Drop/Basic Win on Resplendent Alpha BASIC PLAN -1
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total (reduced) of 4.5 or 6 pts for 'large/small' field OVERALL N/A]
[2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category: No meeting OVERALL N/A]
3) Other tips/selections for fun (at negligible risk): (a) International Zone: No bet
(b) Miscellaneous cards (Spotlight): None expected
(c) Selection Boxes (i) BRITAIN: Catt: OSTFANNI/ACCORDELLO/FESTIVE CHIMES/ALL LOST - no bets, KABIS AMIGOS/3RD/SIR ORPEN/WON, WEEKEND FLING/Won; Nott: GEORDIELAND/LOST/THE LAST DROP/2nd (ii) RSA (Durb): (all or from) Race 1 GLOBAL GIRL/WON F/c Evs R3 WEST COAST WAY/WON - no bet F/c 15/10 R4 MANOR HOUSE/3RD - no bet F/c 7/2, R5 OLYMPIC GOLD/WON - no bet F/c 5/1, R7 MIDWAY'S CASE/LOST 10/1, BEAU DE JOUR/2ND
Bets: Small/miniscule Win, and/or Place/Show, or instead, the occasional EW [OVERALL +2]