Diary for Apr 03 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -166 pts [within OVERALL: -189 ]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
My short-list is 2, mainly for the multiples (as usual). Will they merit the Selection Boxes Support they enjoy? A bit early in the season to count on it: however, they are CATERINA BALLERINA/LOST (Row 2) & THABAAT/WON (Row 3).
My Majority stats are about as encouraging as they can be on both. So, too, my stats on the number of runners F/c @ under 8/1. My stats on results in past races which had the same odds configuration as these two face, are excellent as regards Caterina B. but there's a slight minority of winners as regards Thabaat's (52W57L). Additionally, on the debit side, Caterina B. has a near rival F/c @ 2/1 to her 4/5, a touch near (and worrying), to say the least for a runner I'm depending on.
I don't know how today will go, frankly - there are negatives - but I feel these should win, albeit at not great odds. I'm more hopeful than pessimistic. Will I not like that, though, should they fail to even place (Betfair paying 2 Places in 4 runner race), especially Caterina B. Fervently, I do hope she doesn't disappoint. Ah well. That's racing.
Note: As the job I started with my blog diary for 2006/7 is but mid-way towards some sort of completion, I decided to carry on with a diary for 2007/8.
Summary Day 003 C/F to April 04 (Day04 Month01 Wk1.4 Phase07ADay04) E&OE - BASIC PLAN Phase 07A (wef 01/04/07) Deficit = -473 ... within OVERALL Deficit -514
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: Capped 123 Combo (Sequential Double today), Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions + LateXtras, 2/5th share of Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -22
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
245 SoutA. CATERINA BALLERINA/Lost F/c 4/5 Min value odds, according to my Odds Config. stat, + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.43 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.30 - Bets: Basic + Mop Up, 6th rung (Token) FS + Mop Up, Capped Basic Place Only, 2-Row DoubsTrebs (enhancements of the Basic bet today), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, 5th rung (if Caterina Ballerina wins, otherwise 7th rung) Remedial Supplementary on THABAAT/Won + Mop Up, Mistake: Doubled up on a small bet in error [+1.39], Discrepancy [Negligible] BASIC PLAN -103 [plus OVERALL -22]
Row 3
405 Folk. THABAAT/Won F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 29% = (an unlikely) 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.87 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.30 - Bets: Basic Place Only + Mop Up BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.24]
Place Only I - On Rows 2 & 3 and
SoutA: EMPRESS OLGA/2ND F/c Evs Min val odds + 20% = 1.43 To Place (Majority stat for the win not one of my favourites: 51W81L (why I have not short-listed her); Newmarket's Nap, however, often spot on) - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -8
Place Only II - No selection [OVERALL EVEN]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 3/5th share of Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -17
Naps I - No selection
I wanted to put the above runners here but chickened out because of the cost dropping them to Naps II. (First time I've done this.) I thought enough was being risked already
Ergo, Naps II
CATERINA BALLERINA/Lost (Double stake), EMPRESS OLGA/2nd (Double stake) & THABAAT/Won - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN -16
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total (reduced) of 4.5 or 6 pts for 'large/small' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Wetherby: No selection [OVERALL EVEN]
3) Other tips/selections for fun (at negligible risk): (a) International Zone: 1.40 Durb(RSA). SILKY SILKY/DID NOT PLACE F/c 5/2 My stats are not good. EW recommended
(b) Miscellaneous cards (Spotlight): 435 Gowr(IR) NUVELLI/LOST F/c 4/6
(c) Selection Boxes (i) BRITAIN: No selection (ii) RSA (Durb): Race 1 ISIDINGO/WON F/c 9/10 R4 ALIQUOT/NO RUN F/c 5/1 R6 JANE EYRE/PLACED F/c 22/10
Bets: Small/miniscule Win, and/or Place/Show, or instead, the occasional EW [OVERALL EVEN (-0.25)]