Diary for Mar 31 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -27 pts [within OVERALL: -31 ]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
I have shortlisted 3: BOYCHUCK/LOST (Row 3), FOUNTAIN CRUMBLE/2ND (Place Only I) & MUTAMARED/LOST (Place Only II). My Majority stats are quite encouraging for the win (not that these guarantee anything, of course) but with my Odds stats it's only the same story about Boychuck. Aside from these, it looks to be more or less yet another 'Laura Luck' day. I'll not be risking much but I am hopeful of a small profit.
Summary Day 361(sic.) C/F to April 01 (Day01 Month01 Wk1.1 Phase07ADay01) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +235 pts @ ave of +c7/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +260 @ ave of +c8/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **13 B/PL (11 O/A). [**Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won!] PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, re: presumed error - from -651). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change.
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo (Win on Boychuck), Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, 1/4 share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN -5
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Rows 1& 2 - No qualifier
Supplementaries (Row 2): Short-List (Place Only) Combo (except Boychuck), Ad hoc Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions (except Boychuck) + MUTAMARED, 3rd rung Remedial Supplementary on BOYCHUCK, Mistake/s: Xtra/A Combo (incl. Mutamared in error); I forgot my rule not to do Supplementaries on Win Only races; I missed the deadline to bet on Asiatic Boy [Negligible], Discrepancy [-0.34] [OVERALL -3]
Row 3
305 Asco. BOYCHUCK/Lost F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.99 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28 - Bets: None (Just in the Combos) BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only I - On Row 3 and
Asco: FOUNTAIN CRUMBLE/2nd F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.42 (to Place); KempA: LOPINOT/LOST F/c 5/2, NIGHT CRUISE/LOST F/c 2/1- Bets: Basic (except Boychuck) BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
KempA: MUTAMARED/Lost F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = 1.38 (to Place) - Bet: Basic [OVERALL -1]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 3/4 share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN -9
Naps I
BOYCHUCK/Lost - Bets: Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet today), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 when possible, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet) BASIC PLAN -10
Naps II
Newc: DICHOH/LOST (Double stake); Asco: FOUNTAIN CRUMBLE/2nd - Bets: Basic Place Only on Dichoh BASIC PLAN -1
Tips
1) Main tip to hand 355 Newc. RIO RIVA/2ND F/c 7/1 My stat for 6 runners F/c @ under 14/1 is not great: 22W43L. But my Odds Config. stat is just worse than 50/50 for the win. I am quite happy to stick with not going solely Win Only. - Bets (against advice): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 pts for 'large' field [OVERALL +12]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category at Asco: FOUNTAIN CRUMBLE/2nd (20W23L) WARNINGCAMP/UNSEATED (15W17L); Utto: FASTAFFARAN/NO RUN (71W55L) GREEN N GOLD/2ND (65W61L) LEO MCGARRY/2ND (41W49L) Added due to non-runners: PSYCHOMODO/LOST (65W61L) - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL -2]
3) Other tips/selections for fun (at negligible risk): (a) International Zone: Gulf(USA) BLAZING DYNAMO F/c 7/2/LOST yesterday (but good run to 4th) 1030 Gulf(USA) STORMELLO F/c 3/1/Late result - see tomorrow; 540 Nada(UAE) ADIMIRE MOON/WON F/c 5/1 Turf(RSA) RIPPLING RING/3RD F/C 6/10 (b) Miscellaneous cards: Lime(IR): SUNSHINE GUEST/LOST F/c 6/1; Nada(UAE): ASIATIC BOY/WON - no bet in error F/c Evs, PREMIUM TAP/2ND F/c 7/1; Turf(RSA): 1125 IMPERIALIST/WON F/c 3/1 1230 ODYSSEUS/LOST F/c 7/2 235 RIPPLING RING/3rd F/c 6/10 305 ELUSIVE FORT/WON F/c 12/10 415 DANE JULIA/LOST F/c 5/10 (c) Selection Boxes: Newc: HARLAND/WON F/c 2/1 Utto: FASTAFFARAN/no run F/c 11/8 MCGARRY/2nd F/c 3/1 - (d) Pricewise: Newc. DICHOH/Lost/EUROPEAN DREAM/WON, HINTON ADMIRAL/LOST, RIO RIVA/2nd - Bets: Small/miniscule Win, and/or Place/Show, or, instead, the occasional EW [OVERALL -8]