The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Wed Oct 4 2006
Day185Month7Week1.4 (Phase 06B Day65)

PROSPECTS
I found it difficult to arrive at my bets today. My short-list is quite long (8) by recent standards, enjoying supporting stats that are fair to good but not emphatic - and with a sprinkling of niggling negatives throughout - in particular, 3 cases of my least favourite 'odds configuration:' "6 runners F/c @ under 14/1" (22W43L) as follows: PRESENTING EXPRESS/WON, MACMAR/PU & MY IMMORTAL/WON. Consequently, I am unconfident in the disposition of the qualifiers I have gone with. I might do quite well or (worst case) totally bomb.
OUTCOME:
Good day. (But freed from the constraints of "the Delta Quadrant" I'd have done a lot better)
OVERALL +142 points (including BASIC PLAN +103 points)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 1.5 Day186 (Phase B: Day 66)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -205 points @ an average of  -c3/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +4 points @ an average of -c0/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 2(2) [+101]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
310 Exet. BOYCHUK/WON F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 2.07 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.20 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.41  As the race is over obstacles, halve stakes
500 Towc. HARRIS BAY/WON F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.87 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.05 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28 As over obstacles, halve stakes
Bets: Basic, Token FS + Ad hoc [i.e., not strictly justified] Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1, but today a Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), Place Only, the 3 Combos, Remedial Supplementaries on both starting at the 11th rung  + Mop Ups, Short-list Combo (including MACMAR/pu & MY IMMORTAL/Won)     BASIC PLAN +26 plus OVERALL +39

Row 3
220 Nott. DORIC CHARM/WON F/c Evs Min val odds + 20% = 1.87 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 1.38 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
2.40 Exet. PRESENTING EXPRESS/Won F/c 11/8 Marginal inclusion, taking a chance, due to Selection Box Support (1xNP - Racing Post Ratings)
330 Towc. CHERUB/WON F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20 % = 1.87 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.54 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70 Halve stakes as over obstacles
410 Exet. WARPATH/WON F/c 6/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.87 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.54 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN +43

Naps I - No selection

Naps II
DORIC CHARM/Won (Double stake) - see above
Bet: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +1

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3
Half the bet on Boychuk failed to be matched
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +32

Place Only II
Nott: TOP ROYELLE/LOST
Towc: CHARLTON KINGS/2ND
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.16]

Fancies
Exet: MACMAR/pu
Nott: WOQOODD/LOST
Towc: CARDINAL SINN/LOST (F/c 25/1)
Bets: Tiny speculative multiple of EWDoubles and EW Treble, EW on Macmar     OVERALL -2

My Lay bets - None

Tips
MISS TIZZYNOW 733 Dela(USA/NON RUN - Late result from yesterday
TOUR DANCE F/c 15/1 Laur(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL N/A]
Major Lay tip to hand is PAPILLON DE IENA/HRS LOST 230 Towc.
This selection enjoys a little too much Support for me. No bet. Wrong decision (again). Soundly beaten. Maybe I should retain more faith in this tipster!
No major Tip to hand today
Good word to hand on FONT/3RD - PARK LANE PRINCESS/2ND
BetS: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]