Diary for Mar 27 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +9 pts [within OVERALL: +12]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
Not very interesting, but I've short-listed just GOWER/WON (Row 2). My stats are encouraging, not that they guarantee anything. It merits Row 1, perhaps, but it's an Allweather race and a 5F sprint, therefore I usually down-grade these a Row.
Summary Day 356 C/F to Mar 28 (Day357 Month12 Wk4.7+1 Phase06DrDay28) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +263 pts @ ave of +c10/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +309 @ ave of +c11/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **11 B/PL (10 O/A). [**Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won!] PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, re: presumed error - from -651). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change.
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 1/3rd share of Total Combo, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions (today a Sequential Double) BASIC PLAN +1
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
300 Wolv. GOWER/Won F/c 2/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = (an unlikely) 1.79 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.63 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.26 - Bets: Basic + Capped FS + Mop Ups, 2-Row 'Doubs/Trebs' (with Row 1 when possible, today enhancements of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo' (today an enhancement of the Mop Up) & Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Up, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [+0.28] BASIC PLAN +11 [plus OVERALL +4]
Row 3 - No qualifier
Place Only I - on Row 2 and
LingA: JAADY/WON - Bets: Capped Basic on Gower (Jaady only in Xtra Combo) BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
LingA: THE SLIDER/LOST, CASTANO/LOST; Sedg: ANDRE CHENIER/WON/MANGE TOUT/LOST, ESCAYOLA/2ND/WEE FORBEES/WON - Bets: Basic [OVERALL -4]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 2/3rd share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
JAADY/Won & ESCAYOLA/2nd (Double stakes on each) - Bets: Place Only on Escayola (Jaady only in the Total Combo) BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.02]
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 (or 11) pts for 'large (or small)' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Sedg: ANDRE CHENIER/Won (34W39L), BERLIN BUNKER/3RD/BALLYVOGE/2ND (84W65L), IFNI DU LUC/LOST (84W65L), ESCAYOLA/2nd/WEE FORBEES/Won (73W35L) Added - on price: JERINGA/4TH (paid out by Paddy Power despite 14 ran) (65W43L) - on market support: JUNIOR FONTAINE/2ND (84W65L)- Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +3]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): (a) International Zone: 807 Phil(USA) PRECISELY SUE F/c 5/2/Late result - see tomorrow (b) RSA Durb: 120 (Race 2) SMACK DOWN EW/WON F/C 7/2, MAROOCHY/3RD F/c 19/10; (c) Selection Boxes: Added on late market support: SILVER BOW/LOST F/c 3/1
Bets: Assorted miniscule-to-small Wins and/or Place/Shows, also an EWDouble on the RSA selections [OVERALL EVEN (+0.39)]