Diary for Mar 26 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +126 pts [within OVERALL: +119]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
I've short-listed just GABIER/WON (Row 1). My stats are encouraging, not that they guarantee anything.
Summary Day 355 C/F to Mar 27 (Day356 Month12 Wk4.7 Phase06DrDay27) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +254 pts @ ave of +c10/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +297 @ ave of +c11/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **10 B/PL (9 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: I have decided to use my main banks to calculate Place Only bets in Rows 1, 2 & 3 & Naps I qualifiers. (Mop Ups will remain at Place Only I levels.) So long as my strike rate on Place Only bets is favourable, this change should have the effect of reducing losses on losing days and increasing profits on winning days.
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo (today an enhancement of the Star bet), 1/4 share of Total Combo, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions BASIC PLAN +12
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1
250 Plum. GABIER/Won F/c 10/11 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.99 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.44 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.63 - Bets: Star (changed from Basic) + Mop Up, 2-Row Double (with Naps I), 2-Row Doubs/'Trebs' (with Row 2 wnen possible, today enhancements of the Star bet), *Place Only (*See above-mentioned change to the format) BASIC PLAN +43
Rows 2 & 3 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo' & (on Place Only I inclusions) Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, 2nd rung Ad hoc Remedial Supplementary chanced due to non-runners on OURAGAN LAGRANGE/LOST, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [-1] [OVERALL -10]
Place Only I - on Row 1 and
KempA: SANTAVERTI/2ND; Stra: SPIRIT OF NEW YORK/WON BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II - No selection
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 3/4 share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN +32
Naps I
SPIRIT OF NEW YORK/Won, GABIER/Won & (Plum) LESTER LEADS IN/Won - Bets: Basic + Place Only, Doubles, 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1) BASIC PLAN +37
Naps II - No selection
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 (or 11) pts for 'large (or small)' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Plum: GABIER/Won (69w55L) Added due to non-runners: CLEARLY IN MOTION/WON (from odds actually avail: 69W55L) - Bets: Basic Place Only (Win bet on Clearly in Motion) [OVERALL +3]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): (a) International Zone: Gulf(USA) No. 5 MORAL SUASION F/c 6/1/LOST yesterday; 552 Phil(USA) KEEP TALKIN/BET WON F/c 9/2 (b) RSA Vaal: Race 2 PROFIT REPORT/WON F/c 1/3 Race 10 EPIC FLIGHT/LOST F/c Evs; (c) Selection Boxes: KempA: NOD'S STAR/2ND F/C 9/2
Bets: Assorted miniscule-to-small Wins and/or Place/Shows [OVERALL EVEN (-0.09)]