Diary for Mar 25 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -67 pts [within OVERALL: -61]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
I've short-listed 4: TURBO LINN/WON taking a chance (Row 1), GOLDEN CHILD/3RD (Row 2), CLEARLY IN MOTION/WON & FOUNTAIN HILL/3RD (Row 3). My Sundays Majority stats are very encouraging about Turbo Linn & Fountain Hill, not that they guarantee anything, but only 50/50 for the win on the others. The latter has the weakest Odds stat at just worse than 50/50. That said, my other (less reliable) New Odds stat (the one based on the number of runners forecast to SP @ less than 8/1) is very encouraging about them all.
I've not applied Sunday Mode (which halves computed stakes) but am thinking as I write that I should have Yes. (I may yet cancel assorted unmatched bets I didn't). I don't know what to hope for today, really: I'm having touble shaking an uneasy feeling it might go wrong (which would hurt significantly) born out. On the other hand, I've enjoyed excellent days in the past on far worse stats than today's. You never know with racing, do you? Part of the thrill.
Summary Day 354 C/F to Mar 26 (Day355 Month12 Wk4.6 Phase06DrDay26) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +128 pts @ ave of +c5/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +178 @ ave of +c7/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **9 B/PL (8 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change today.
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo, 2/3rd share of Total Combo, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, + Xtras BASIC PLAN -38
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1
500 Sout. TURBO LINN/Won F/c 2/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.81 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.39 Old stat stakes enhancer x 4.00 (based on 35 results: 28W7L) - Bets: Basic + Token Star + Mop Ups, Sequential 2-Row Double (with Naps I), Sequential 2-Row Doubs/'Trebs' (with Row 2), Place Only BASIC PLAN +5
Row 2
330 Sout. GOLDEN CHILD/3rd F/c 10/11 Min value odds + 20% = 1.57 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.50 Old stat stakes enhancer x Zero
Bets: Basic + Mop Up, 2-Row Doubs&Trebs (with Row 1, Sequential Doubles today), Place Only, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo' &, on Place Only I inclusions, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, 2nd rung Remedial Supplementary on CLEARLY IN MOTION/Won & 1st rung (provisionally) on FOUNTAIN HILL/3rd, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [+3] BASIC PLAN -20 [plus OVERALL +6]
Row 3
230 Sout. CLEARLY IN MOTION/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.81 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.89 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.96
CLEARLY IN MOTION (again) - by Infiltration on Support (2xNaps)
310 Taun. FOUNTAIN HILL/3rd F/c 7/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.89 Old stat stakes stakes enhancer x 1.90 (based on 29 results: 19W10L) - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Rows 1, 2 & 3 and
Kemp: FONGS GAZELLE/WON F/c 8/11 - Bets: Basic (except Fongs Gazelle, win only race i.e., included only for the Xtra Combo) BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
KempA: SOHRAAB/2ND; Sout: BRONSON F'SURE/WON, SANTANDO/PLACED, IM A WITNESS/WON/LORD GEE/NO RUN; Taun: CRAVEN/WON - Bet: Basic [OVERALL +2]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 1/3rd share of Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -8
Naps I
GOLDEN CHILD/3rd - Bets: Basic + Mop Up; 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet today), Sequential 2-Row Double (with Row 1) BASIC PLAN -13
Naps II
FOUNTAIN HILL/3rd - Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Tips
1) Main tip awaited if any [Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 (or 11) pts for 'large (or small)' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Sout: GOLDEN CHILD/3rd (30W27L) IM A WITNESS/Won/LORD GEE/no run/taking a chance DEVIL'S DISGUISE/PU (72W34L) - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +2]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): (a) International Zone: 400 Aute(FR) JULIANO STAR/LOST, 854 Gulf(USA) No. 5 MORAL SUASION F/c 6/1/Late result - see tomorrow; (b) RSA Grey: Race 2 MAELSTROM/3RD - win F/c 2/1 Race 5 ARABESQUE DANCER/2ND - no bet F/c 15/10, Race 9 DURANGO/3RD - no bet F/c 9/10; (c) Selection Boxes: KempA: SPOT THE SUBBIE/LOST F/c 11/4, BAIZICALLY/LOST F/c 9/4, NOU CAMP/3RD F/c 8/1; Sout: OVER THE STORM/LOST - no bet F/c 9/1, CLASSIC ROCK/LOST F/c 6/1, DEVIL'S DISGUISE/pu F/c 11/4; Taun: CHRISTADALO/2ND F/c 6/1
(d) Miscellaneous Picks: CurrIR: CREACHADOIR/3RD - win and show F/c 5/4
Bets: Assorted miniscule-to-small Wins and/or Place/Shows [OVERALL -4]