Diary for Mar 24 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +26 pts [within OVERALL: +59]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
It took me a while but I finally short-listed 3: LADY MARANZI/WON & MULTICULTURAL/WON (Row 2), ROYAL JET/LOST (Row 3). My Majority and Odds stats are very encouraging, not that they guarantee anything. Royal Jet is significantly Opposed and Lady Maranzi is by an odd-one-out-er. Reasonable amount at risk today without it being sky-high. I am hopeful.
Summary Day 353 C/F to Mar 25 (Day354 Month12 Wk4.5 Phase06DrDay25) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +195 pts @ ave of +c8/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +239 @ ave of +c10/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **9 B/PL (8 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change today.
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo, Half share of Total Combo, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions, + Xtras BASIC PLAN -7
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
210 Bang. LADY MARANZI/Won F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.81 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.47 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.63
830 Wolv. MULTICULTURAL/WON - just F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.82 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.47 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.22
Bets: Basic + 1st rung FS + Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubs&Trebs (Sequential Doubles today), Place Only, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo' &, on Place Only I inclusions, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, 1st rung Remedial Supplementary on ROYAL JET/Lost, Bookie credit [+10], Mistake/s Several, by omission mainly; not expensive [-2], Discrepancy [-0.48] BASIC PLAN +35 [plus OVERALL +16]
Row 3
420 LingA. ROYAL JET/Lost F/c 11/10 Min val odds + 20 % = 1.81 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.86 to Win, 1.20 to Place, Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.25 - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN -6
Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Bang: BARBER SHOP/UNSEATED, ROWDY YEATS/2ND - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
Bang: ANNIE'S ANSWER/WON; Kemp: GEORDIELAND/2ND no bet in error; Newb: KAMES PARK/WON - Bet: Basic [OVERALL EVEN (+0.29)]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: Half share of Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I
LADY MARANZI/Won - Bets: Basic + Mop Up; 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet today), '2-Row Double' (with Row 1 when possible, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet) BASIC PLAN +4
Naps II
Bang: BARBER SHOP/UR; LingA: LOPINOT/WON (Double stake); MULTICULTURAL - Bets: Basic Place Only on Lopinot BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.29]
Tips
1) Main tip was ALDERBURN/WON F/c 6/1 - Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 pts for 'large' field OVERALL +12]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Newb: LADY MARANZI/Won (68W55L) ANNIE'S ANSWER/Won/BARBERS SHOP/ur (83W64L) ROWDY YEATS/2nd (28W33L) - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +2]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): (a) International Zone: Gulf(USA) OISTING BAY/WON yesterday 529 Gulf NORTHERN LINKAGE/WON; (b) RSA Durb: Race 1 FOREVER CASEY/2ND no bet, Race 2 TERCEL/WON no bet; RSA Newm: TRINKET/NOT WIN no bet; SIRIUS STAR/WON; (c) Selection Boxes: LingA: LOPINOT/Won; Kemp: SPANISH NEEDLE/LOST HURLINGHAM/LOST
(d) Racing Post Picks: Nava(IR): NICKNAME/WON; Pricewise: LingA: ALFIE FITS/LOST - Bets: Assorted miniscule/Small Wins or Place/Shows [OVERALL +3]