Diary for Mar 22 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +50 pts [within OVERALL: +60]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
4 short-listed: FIRST LOOK/WON (Row 2) MASSASOIT/WON (Row 3) AMSTECOS/WON & MUHTENBAR/LOST - burst vessel (Place Only I). My Majority stats all encouraging but the Odds stats of the latter two are worse than 50/50 for the win. I am feeling fairly cautious, as this has not been a favourable period: why should a sudden change for the better occur? But it did! And a pleasant change it made, too!
Summary Day 351 C/F to Mar 23 (Day352 Month12 Wk4.3 Phase06DrDay23) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +183 pts @ ave of +c8/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +196 @ ave of +c9/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **8 B/PL (7 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change today.
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 Combo (Sequential Double), 2/5ths Share of Total Combo + Xtra, Xtra Combo on Place Only I inclusions + LateXtras BASIC PLAN +17
See below for Combo II (Naps Table)
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
320 Ayr. FIRST LOOK/Won F/c 4/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.82 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.56 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.24
Bets: Basic & FS + Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubs & Trebs (with Row 1 when possible, today enhancements of the Basic bet), Place Only, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Remedial Supplementary on MASSASOIT/Won + Mop Up, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [-0.95] BASIC PLAN +7 [plus OVERALL +6]
Row 3
520 Ayr. MASSASOIT/Won F/c 4/9 Min val odds + 20% = 1.57 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.75 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28 - Bets: Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - On Rows 2 & 3 and
Ayr: AMSTECOS/Won; Ludl: MUHTENBAR/Lost, L'OUDON/2ND - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Ayr: SOMETHING SILVER/3RD, IDARAH/2ND/BARNEY'S DREAM/WON, BOLD RANSOM/LOST; Ludl: LUNAR CRYSTAL/WON, VAL DU CIRON/WON - Bet: Basic [OVERALL +2]
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 3/5ths Share of Total Combo + Xtra BASIC PLAN +22
Naps I
FIRST LOOK/Won - Bets: Basic + Mop Up; 'Double,' plus (with Row 1 when possible) '2-Row Double' (both enhancements of the Basic bet today) BASIC PLAN +4
Naps II
MARVELLOUS DREAM/LOST & MOUSESKI/WON (Double stake on each) - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN -2
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 (or *11) pts for 'large (or *small)' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Ayr: AMSTECOS/Won/SOMETHING SILVER/3rd (37W49L) FIRST LOOK/Won (29W27L) IDARAH/2nd/BARNEY'S DREAM/Won (68W34L); at Ludl: MARVELLOUS DREAM/Lost/HEART SPRINGS/3RD taking a chance (82W63L) MUHTENBAR/Lost (19W24L) L'OUDON/2nd/LUNAR CRYSTAL/Won (37W49L) Added: MOUSESKI/Won (67W55L) - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +6]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): International Zone: Vaal(RSA) COOL LUCY/WON 529 Gulf(USA) No7 FARLEYSHELDONWHEELS/LOST; Selection Boxes: Ludl: MARVELLOUS DREAM/Lost, MOUSESKI/Won; SoutA: CANADIAN DANEHILL/WON/EGYPTIAN LORD/2ND, THREE BOARS/3RD, TEDSDALE/3RD - RSA Vaal: Race 3 FAIR STAR/3RD Race 5 SPOT PRICE/3RD - but Win bet; Clon(IR): (all, or from) RI NA DEISE/LOST/BRAVE RIGHT/WON, IN THE HIGH GRASS/LOST, SLYGUFF RORY/3RD, SHUIL DARA/2ND
Bets: Miniscule Win, and, sadly, only a few Place/Show bets after all [OVERALL -4]