Diary for Mar 19 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -23 pts [within OVERALL:-29]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
Short-list of 3 today: THREE MIRRORS/WON (Row 2), WARLORD/FELL & QUIET TIMES/3RD (Place Only I). My Majority stats are very encouraging, not that they guarantee anything. My Odds stats are strongly encouraging about just Three Mirrors. Indeed, Warlord and Quiet Times each include stats that are amongs the worst I have in stock at present. I have included them on a fingers crossed basis. I can only be hopeful today; no more than that.
Summary (Day 348) C/F to Mar 20 (Day349 Month12 Wk3.6 Phase06DrDay20) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +136 pts @ ave of +c7/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +153 @ ave of +c8/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **7 B/PL (6 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C:
(1) I've increased (by 20%) the capping threshold for Basic Plan bets outside Row 1. (Row 1's was doubled recently.)
(2) The "2-Row Trebles" bet (re: Rows 1 & 2) was recently changed to "2-Row Doubs&Trebs."
Combo I (Press Corps) Bets: 123 (Sequential Double) & Xtra Combos + LateXtras, 1/3rd share of the Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -11
Combo II (Naps Table) Bets: 2/3rds share of the Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN -15
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
340 MarkR. THREE MIRRORS/Won F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.57 New odds stats stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.50 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.22 - Bets: Basic + Mop Up, FS + Mop Up, Capped Place Only, 2-Row Doubs&Trebs (with Row 1 when possible, today an enhancement of the Basic bet). Supplementary bets (Row 2): Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, (Tiny) Ad hoc Remedial Supplementary on WARLORD/Fell, Mistake/s [-7], Discrepancy [-1] BASIC PLAN +6 [plus OVERALL +5]
Row 3
300 Winc. WARLORD/Fell F/c 5/4 [Min val odds + 20% = 2.40] Infiltrated on Support (4xNaps) Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only I - on Row 2 and
SoutA: QUIET TIMES/3rd - Winc: WARLORD/Fell - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.18]
Place Only II - No qualifier [OVERALL N/A]
Naps I
WARLORD/Fell (Triple stake), THREE MIRRORS/Won - Bets: Basic (+ Mop Up on Three Mirrors), Place Only on Three Mirrors, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 when possible, today an enhancement of the Sequential Double) BASIC PLAN -3
Naps II
SoutA: VICTORY QUEST/LOST & ARCH OF TITUS/WON - Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 (or 11) pts for 'large (or small)' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
MarkR: NORTONTHORPE LAD/LOST (29W26L) GIDAM GIDAM/WON (36W49L) THREE MIRRORS/Won (68W34L); Winc: HIGH CALIBRE/3rd (12W18L) WARLORD/Fell (62W58L) THEDREAMSTILLALIVE/WON (62W58L) - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL -1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): International Zone: 754 Gulf(USA) ALTERED STATE/LOST - yesterday, 620 Phil(USA) KITTERY POINT/NO RUN; Selection Boxes: MarkR: (*4321-ish bets) *KARATHAENA/LOST - SoutA: ARCH OF TITUS/Won, Winc: *WARLORD/Fell, HIGH CALIBRE/3rd, PETIT LORD/3RD
Bets: Miniscule Place/Show (except tiny EW bet on Karathaena)
More awaited if any (not expected) [OVERALL EVEN (-0.26)]