The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Tue Oct 3 2006
Day184Month7Week1.3 (Phase 06B Day64)

PROSPECTS
My stats are more encouraging for the wins than yesterday's were on my qualifiers. Odds will be awful but, hopefully, the wins will happen.
I have capped my Short-list Combo stake today (yesterday's computed too high and significantly helped to spoil my figures - 3 came 2nd and 1 was a losing 4th).
I feel less at risk today, but you never know.
OUTCOME: The failure of Kerry's Blade (Unseated rider) cost me a bigger winning day. That said, I am still left with the feeling I should have done better than I did today.     OVERALL +16 points (including BASIC PLAN +5)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 1.4 Day185 (Phase B: Day 65)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -347 points @ an average of  -c5/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -99 points @ an average of -c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 1(1) [-41]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 1
330 Hunt. KANPAI/WON F/c 1/3 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 2.10 (not much chance of getting this, I would think), New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.53 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
Bets: Basic, Star (Lower level), 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 but today a Win Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), the 3 Combos + Xtras     BASIC PLAN +5

Row 2
500 Hunt. GRECIAN GROOM/WON F/c 1/5 Min value odds + 20% = 2.10 (no chance),  New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.15 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.88  As the race is a bumper, no need to halve stakes
Bets: Basic, Token FS + Ad hoc [i.e., not strictly justified] Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1, but today a Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras, Remedial Supplementary (12th rung) on KANPAI/Won     BASIC PLAN +2 plus OVERALL +12

Row 3
300 Hunt. KERRY'S BLADE/UR F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.30 New odds stat xtakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08 Halve stakes as over obstacles
300 Hunt. Ditto above/Ur Added to reflect Selection Box Support (2xNaps)
430 Hunt. GENERAL ALARM/WON F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20 % = 2.10 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.53 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps I
Hunt: KERRY'S BLADE/Ur - no bet - KANPAI/Won - GRECIAN GROOM/Won
Bets: Basic, Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.41]

Naps II - No selection

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3, and
Hunt: KANPAI/Won (Xtra Combo only)
Leic: MISTER MAQ/LOST - PHILANTHROPY/WON (Xtra Combo only)
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras     BASIC PLAN -5

Place Only II
Catt: EMAARA/2ND/THE NIFTY FOX/WON
Hunt: COUNTY FINAL/LOST
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.44]

Fancies - None
My Lay bets - None

Tips
SILENT ASSASSIN F/c 16/1 200 Durb(RSA/LOST
MISS TIZZYNOW 733 Dela(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
No major Lay tip to hand today
No major Tip to hand today
Good words to hand on WORD PERFECT/2ND
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]