Diary for Mar 17 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -41 pts [within OVERALL: -25]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
I've short-listed TURNSTILE/2ND (Row 2), LESLINGTAYLOR/WON (Row 3) & RECIPROCATION/2ND (Place Only I). My Majority stats are excellent. Odds Configuration stats, too, are pretty encouraging (not that this guarantees anything) but a degree or two less than 50/50 for the win in one case about Reciprocation. All are, however, Opposed - in Reciprocation's case, significantly (or they'd each be up one Row).
Not a day to get carried away, perhaps. So I've [fortunately] declined to do an FS Supplementary bet on Turnstile.
I can be hopeful (though no more than that); but I have seen good days on stats inferior to what I've got about these'uns. A good day except for the main qualifier!
Summary (Day 346) C/F to Mar 18 (Day347 Month12 Wk3.4 Phase06DrDay18) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +163 pts @ ave of +c10/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +191 @ ave of +c11/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **7 B/PL (6 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change today.
Combos I - Bets: 123 (Sequential Double today) & Xtra Combos + LateXtra, 2/3rds Share of Total Combo (enhancement of the Sequential Double today) BASIC PLAN -12
Combos II - Bet: 1/3rd Share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN -2
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
510 Weth. TURNSTILE/2nd F/c 4/9 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.33 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 15 (16W1L - I call this "15") Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.80
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Capped Place Only, 2-Row Doubs&Trebs (with Row 1 when possible, an enhancement of the Basic bet today), Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I inclusions, 1st rung Ad Hoc Remedial Supplementary on LESLINGTAYLOR/Won, Mistakes [Negligible], Discrepancy [+0.71] BASIC PLAN -30 [plus OVERALL +4]
Row 3
405 Newc. LESLINGTAYLOR/Won F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.82 (to win) 1.20 (to Place) New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.85 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.22 Bets: Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I
LingA: KING'S APOSTLE/WON - LISATHEDADDY/WON - RECIPROCATION/2nd
Newc: LESLINGTAYLOR/Won - Weth: TURNSTILE/2nd Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II
LingA: THUNDERBOLT JAXON/3rd - STRINGS OF MY HEART/NO RUN Bets: Basic [OVERALL +1]
Naps I
LESLINGTAYLOR/Won Bets: Basic Win, Double (today a tiny enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 when possible, today a further tiny enhancement of the Basic bet) BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II - No selection
Tips
1) Main tip to hand is NEWBAY PROP/3RD (EW) F/c 6/1 Only The Times has picked it in the Selection Box, often a good judge. Who knows? Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 4 pts for 'large' field i.e., half the usual as it's an EW tip I've reduced the bet sizes to reflect a depletion in this bank (I make such changes on Fridays, if required, all banks) [OVERALL +4]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Newc: LESLINGTAYLOR/Won/CATEGORICAL/2ND (64W34L) CALCULAITE/3RD (19W23L) Added: PEE JAY'S DREAM/3RD/NOCIVO/LOST (27W31L) LAERTES/LOST taking a chance (9W21L) - Weth: FOLK TUNE/WON/(Added on price)WEE BERTIE/LOST (28W24L) LOULOU NIVERNAIS/FELL taking a chance (9W21L) RING THE BOSS/WON (32W39L) TURNSTILE/2nd (80W51L) Also added on price: SHREWD INVESTOR/WON (63W55L) SPIRIT CALLING/LOST (15W16L) Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +7]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): Selection Boxes: TRISONS STAR/WON (Newc), Weth: FOLK TUNE/WON, TAZBAR/WON - Pricewise: NIL DESPERANDUM/PULLED UP/JAQUOUILLE/LOST - Race 6 Gulf(USA) GOLDEN GLADE F/c 6/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Miniscule Place/Show
Down(IR): DUN DOIRE/WON - MHIC MOCROI/LOST/AGUS A VIC/WON - More awaited if any (from other meetings) - but not expected
Bets: Small Place Only on Dun Doire/Miniscule Win on Mhic Mocroi/EW on Agus A Vic [OVERALL EVEN (+0.30)]