Diary for Mar 16 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -6 pts [within OVERALL: -9]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
I have short-listed JERICHO III/FELL (Place Only II). Odds Configuration stat one of my worst: 11W23L, hence Place Only II. Just squeaks in, really.
So many wonderful horses, such interesting racing, terrific excitements, hardly anything to back (not the way I go about it, anyway). As a punter, this is the time of the racing year I feel at my most inadequate. Days like these, of truly serious horse-racing, you had better know what you are doing or you can lose a tidy bundle all too easily.
Summary (Day 345) C/F to Mar 17 (Day346 Month12 Wk3.3 Phase06DrDay17) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +204 pts @ ave of +13/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +216 @ ave of +14/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **7 B/PL (6 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change today.
Combos I
Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Combos II
Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.20]
Rows 1-3 - No qualifier
Supplementary Bets (Row 2): Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo' & Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Up on Jericho III/Lost, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [+0.18] [OVERALL -3]
Place Only I - No qualifier
Place Only II
Fake: JERICHO III/Fell Bets: Basic [OVERALL -6]
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Chel: KAUTO STAR/WON Fake: JERICHO III/Fell Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Tips
1) Main tips to hand DEGAS ART (EW)/LOST F/c 10/1 & SAINTSAIRE/LOST F/c 4/1 Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 5.5 pts each for 'large' fields [OVERALL -11]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Chel: KAUTO STAR/Won (27W24L) WHYSO MAYO/2ND (62W34L); Fake: HIBERNIAN/WON (79W61L) DOCTOR DAVID/WON (62W34L) Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +11]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): Selection Boxes: WICHITA LINEMAN/WON, KAUTO STAR/Won, WHYSO MAYO/2nd.
Bets: Miniscule Place/Show
Chel: DUTY/LOST & STATE OF PLAY/LOST (AntiPost);
Pricewise: LOUNAOS/LOST/DEGAS ART/Lost, JACKS CRAIC/LOST, ARCALIS/LOST/OUNINPOHJA/2ND
More awaited if any - not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.34)]