Diary for Mar 15 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -3 pts [within OVERALL: -28]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
I have short-listed ALL FOR LUCK/NO RUN (Row 1) & HAND OF FATE/LOST (Place Only I). Poor likely price on All For Luck, but no other negatives. Hand of Fate is a debutant and significantly opposed, hence Place Only I.
Today is notable as regards peripheral options I pencilled in originally. Nearly all suffer from falling within one of my category of stats with a poor ratio of winners/losers, namely "6 runners F/c @ less than 14/1." At Chel, these are: MONET'S GARDEN/LOST/OUR VIC/2ND, GUNGADU/FELL; at Hexh: WESTGROVE BERRY/2ND, LANKAWI/WON; and at SoutA: DESERT LOVER/3RD, THREE BOARS/WON. I had them all down for "Place Only II" but quickly discounted Gungadu (reluctantly) and Westgrove Berry as they fall also within another set of unfavourable stats. My 'jury' took longer on the others & finally reprieved only Monet's Garden/Our Vic. Just thought you'd like to know. Disappointing day. At least there was little damage to speak of on Basic Plan.
Summary (Day 344) C/F to Mar 16 (Day345 Month12 Wk3.2 Phase06DrDay16) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +210 pts @ ave of +14/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +225 @ ave of +15/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **7 B/PL (6 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change today.
Combos I
Bets: Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN -2
Combos II
No share of Total Combo today as there is no Naps I/II selection
Row 1
330 Hexh. ALL FOR LUCK/No run F/c 2/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = (an unlikely) 1.82 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.39 Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.67
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, 2-Row Double (with Naps I when possible, an enhancement today of the Basic bet), 2-Row Doubs&Trebs (with Row 2 when possible, today a further enhancement of the single bet), Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN
Row 2 - No qualifier
Supplementary Bets (Row 2): Short-List (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Place Only I, Mistake: Clicked on wrong horse! (Both lost) [-1.00], Discrepancy [Nil] [OVERALL -2]
Row 3 - No qualifier
Place Only I - on Row 1 and
SoutA: HAND OF FATE/Lost Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
Chel: MONET'S GARDEN/Lost/OUR VIC/2nd; SoutA: DOCTOR'S CAVE/LOST; Bets: Basic [OVERALL -4]
Naps I & II - No selection
Tips
1) Main tip to hand MONCADOU (EW)/LOST F/c 7/1 Well backed today. A forecast of 7/1, though, is a forecast of 7/1. I think it best to back as though it's this price whatever the actual may be. Bets (against advice as usually Win, sometimes EW, tip): Split of small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 5 1/2 pts for 'large' field [OVERALL -6]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Chel: OPERA MUNDI/LOST (16W13L) GUNGADU/Fell (79W60L) MILLENIUM ROYAL/LOST taking a chance (No stat avail.); Hexh: ALL FOR LUCK/No run/Added: SOMEDO SOMEDONT/LOST (42W48L) & TOPAZ LADY/LOST (No stat avail.) MISTER MAGNUM (No stat avail.) Bets: Basic Place Only (Small Win as well on Millenium Royal & instead on Topaz Lady & Mister Magnum) Chased losses a tiny bit (seeking what looked like 'value') but did not hit lucky [OVERALL -13]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): Gulf(USA) SWEETSOTHERNBREEZE/LOST yesterday F/c 5/1 (two of my least encouraging stats applied: 22W41L & 22W43L Born out) 529 Gulf(USA) SENORITA SWINGER/WON F/c 5/2, Chel: BOB HALL/2ND, TARANIS/WON, TIKRAM/LOST, GARDE CHAMPETRE/LOST, RHINESTONE COWBOY/LOST/ADAMENT APPROACH/3RD More awaited if any - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Place/Show [OVERALL EVEN (-0.02)]