Diary for Mar 12 2007
Bets on Mon Mar 12 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +49 pts (within OVERALL: +55)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
I found today's research tricky, potentially trappy. There proved a host of near-qualifiers for my short-list but, applying my criteria strictly, I ended up qualifying just one: HI DANCER/WON (Row 2). My stats are encouraging across the board on it (not that this guarantees anything) but its race is a Claimer, hence Row 2 rather than 1. A couple that I may regret having failed to qualify are NOBLE BILY/WON & VENICE ROAD/WON, though I fitted them in by the back door (by, respectively, infiltration into Row 3 & selection in Naps II).
Days like today can work out absolutely brilliantly ... or you can end up with a row of near misses ... or, more likely, something undistinguished in between. However, in favour of the first example, I can say that my short-list of eight Naps Table tipsters have Napped most of my near-qualifiers, which is often a good sign. I shall benefit from this coincidence only via the Xtra Combo, if my luck is in.
Could prove an interesting day ... but I'm not holding my breath.
Summary (Day 341) C/F to Mar 12 (Day341 Month12 Wk2.6 Phase06DrDay13) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +243 pts @ ave of +20/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +292 @ ave of +24/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **7 B/PL (6 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change today.
Combos I
Bets: 123 (Sequential Double today) & Xtra Combos + LateXtras, Share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN +24
Combos II
Bets: Share of Total Combo BASIC PLAN +18
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
400 Plum. HI DANCER/Won F/c 1/3 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.86 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.51 Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.59
Bets: Basic & 1st rung FS + Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubs & Trebs (with Row 1 when possible, today enhancements of the Basic bet), Place Only, Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (on Short-List + the other runners in Place Only I + Noble Bily, Place Only II), 1st rung Ad hoc (i.e., non-routine) Remedial Supplementary chanced on NOBLE BILY/Won + Mop Up, Mistake/s: Xtra/A Combo: included Noble Bily instead of Venice Road in error [Negligible so far], Discrepancy [+1.21] [OVERALL +10]
Row 3
210 Taun. NOBLE BILY/Won F/c 1/3 Infiltrated on Support taking a chance [Min value odds + 20% = 1.57 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.75 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.22]
Bets: None (i.e., other than Remedial bet in Row 2 and Noble Bily's place within the Combos) BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only I - on Row 2
Plum: NETHERLEY/WON - THE HARDY BOY/LOST (no bet) - MON MICHEL/2ND - WENGER/2ND on Betfair/LOST (Xtra Combo)
Taun: SPIDAM/2ND - EDEN LINTY/WON - VENICE ROAD/WON Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Taun: NOBLE BILY/Won - ELEGANT CLUTTER/FELL - PRESENT M'LORD/LOST - SHERNATRA/LOST Bets: Basic [OVERALL -4]
Naps I
NETHERLEY/Won (Double Stake) Bets: Basic, Double (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 when possible, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II
VENICE ROAD/Won Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice): Split of very small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 11/15 pts for 'large/small' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Plum: NETHERLEY/Won (61W33L) MON MICHEL/2nd (61W33L)/(no bet)ENLIGHTENMENT/WON HI DANCER/Won (36W48L) - Taun: NOBLE BILY/Won (61W58L) SPIDAM/2nd (63W55L) EDEN LINTY/Won (63W55L) PRESENT M'LORD/Lost (61w33l)/(no bet)BACKIN BUSINESS/2ND Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): 854 Gulf(USA) PERFECTLY NATURAL F/c 6/1/LOST - yesterday Race 2 Flam(RSA) GATES HEAD/No bet F/c 3/1 - R7 SELECT CONNECTIONS/LOST F/c 22/10, 459 Phil(USA) ITSACELEBRATION/BET WON F/c 5/2 More awaited if any - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule win/Place-Show on Perfectly Natural & Itsaceleberation [OVERALL -1]