The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Mon Oct 2 2006
Day183Month7Week1.2 (Phase 06B Day63)

PROSPECTS
My stats are reasonably encouraging for the win on AVORIAZ/2ND & MANTLE/2ND, not that they guarantee anything. The Place Only stake on Mantle has computed quite high by recent standards and will hurt a touch if the horse fails to Place.
My Short-list Combo stake, too, has computed quite high - too high, probably. Fingers crossed.
In short, I am at risk today.
OUTCOME:
My feeling is there have been more racing days like today this year than my staking system has been able to absorb - when a couple of runners look strong in Support, enjoy encouraging sats in my records, attract decent sized bets from me, therefore, then run in 2nd and damage my banks. It's a weakness of my system that it does not get them right often enough. I shall be working on this problem.
OVERALL -36 points (including BASIC PLAN -23)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 1.3 Day184 (Phase B: Day 64)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -363 points @ an average of  -c6/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -103 points @ an average of -c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 0(0) [-57]
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 1  - No qualifier

Row 2
450 Wolv. MANTLE/2nd F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 1.97 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.08 Old stat stakes enhancecer x 1.09
510 Pont. AVORIAZ/2nd F/c Min val odds + 20% = 2.17 New odds stat stakes reducer (Row 2) x 0.66 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.30
Bets: Basic, Token FS + Ad hoc (i.e., not strictly justified) Mop Ups, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally, but today a Sequential Double as there is no Row 1 or 3rd qualifier), Place Only, Sequential 123 Combo, Short-List Combo (EWDoubles), Total & Xtra Combos     Once again the Short-List Combo (+ Xtras on that) did me damage. It has been a disappointing recent addition to my menu of bets - but the two days or so before I introduced it would have returned on stakes brilliantly! Sod's Law ...     BASIC PLAN -13 plus OVERALL -31

Row 3 - No qualifier

Naps I
AVORIAZ/2nd - see above
Bets: Basic (Triple stake), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -5

Naps II
Wind: SMALL STAKES/LOST F/c 13/8
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only I - on Row 2 and
Wind: SMALL STAKES/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN -5

Place Only II
Pont: LUCKY BEE/LOST - WOOLLY BULLY/WON - COOPERSTOWN/2ND
Wind: JODRELL BANK/LOST/GOODWOOD MARCH/WON - KALATIME/2ND - TIPTOEING (maybe/LOST - no bet
Wolv: NANDO'S DREAM/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Fancies
Pont: ALPES MARITIMES/LOST - good run for money, faded to 4th - SUPASEUS/LOST
Wind: PSYCHIC STAR/LOST
Wolv: CAUSTIC WIT/LOST
Bets: Tiny EW Doubles, tiny win on Psychic Star     OVERALL -1

My Lay bets - None

Tips
IHAVEMYEYEONYOU Race 8 Turf(USA/LOST - late result from yesterday
SUPER NATASCHA Fc 4-1 854 Dela(USA/2ND
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.47)]
The major Lay tip to hand is TOBERMORY/HRS LOST F/c 2/1 400 Wind.
Confused picture on what the likely race winner is, but I am not entirely happy with this selection to lay. It may well lose. But if it does, it does. No bet.
The major EW Tip to hand is SELKIRK LADY/4TH Fc 7-1 440 Pont.
Bet: Tiny win, the balance Place Only, to total 30 points   [OVERALL +21]
Good words to hand on WANNABE POSH/2ND - PIPERS SONG/LOST - ACCORDELLO/LOST
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.44)]