Diary for Mar 11 2007
Bets on Sun Mar 11 2007 Sunday Mode not applied
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -13 pts (within OVERALL: -11)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
3 in my short-list: BEST ACTOR/2ND & ALFADORA/WON (Row 3) & CORLANDE/LOST (Place Only I). My Sundays Majority stats are strongest on Corlande but my Odds stats about its race are not terrific. My Odds stats are encouragingly strong on the other two, but the Sundays Majority stats just 50/50ish for the win.
Mixed messages like this are often suggestive the day needs to be approached cautiously. I've placed little at stake and hope to break even at worst.
Summary (Day 340) C/F to Mar 11 (Day341 Month12 Wk2.5S Phase06DrDay12) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +194 pts @ ave of +18/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +237 @ ave of +22/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **6 B/PL (5 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: (1) I have decided to do Place Only bets on the Naps Rows routinely whenever I am doubling the stakes or more. (2) To reflect the fact that I maintain separate banks for Selection Box qualifiers and Naps Table selections, I've decided to sub-divide the Combos section into I and II.
Combos I
Bets: 123 & Xtra Combos, Share of Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -14
Combos II
Bets: 1/4 Share of Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -2
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2: Supplemetary): Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (including on MENDO/WON, Place Only II), 1st rung Remedial Supplementaries on BEST ACTOR/2nd & (tiny) CORLANDE/Lost plus one (2nd rung) added on ALFADORA/Won, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [+0.34] [OVERALL +5]
Row 3
240 Warw. BEST ACTOR/2nd F/c 8/13 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.86 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.80 Old Sundays stat stakes reducer x 0.96
310 Warw. ALFADORA/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.57 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.75 Old Sundays stat stakes reducer x 0.74
320 MarkR. CORLANDE/Lost F/c 5/4 Infiltrated on Support (2xNaps) Bets: Place Only (except Corlande) BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Row 3
[CORLANDE/Lost Min val odds + 20% = 2.71 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old Sundays stat stakes enhancer x 4.00] Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
MarkR: MENDO/Won - Warw: IRONSIDE/LOST Added: FIDDLE/WON Bets: Basic [OVERALL EVEN (+0.11)]
Naps I
MENDO/Won (Triple Stake) Bets: Basic, Double (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 when possible, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II - No selection
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice): Split of very small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 11/15 pts for 'large/small' field OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
MarkR: MENDO/Won/MURPHYS MILLION/LOST (76W57L)
Warw: ALFADORA/Won (62W55L) [OVERALL -3]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): 727 Gulf(USA) FEARLESS VISION/WON F/c 9/5 - yesterday 854 Gulf(USA) PERFECTLY NATURAL F/c 6/1/Late result - see tomorrow Clai(RSA) MR FLATLEY/LOST I think - no bet F/c 11/10 More awaited - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule win/Place-Show on Fearless Vision & Perfectly Natural [OVERALL so far EVEN (+ 0.03)]