Diary for Mar 10 2007
Bets on Sat Mar 10 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +118 pts (within OVERALL: +117)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
2 in my short-list: KILLAGHY CASTLE/WON (Row 1) & BERWICK LAW/WON (Row 3). My Majority stats are strong and my Odds stats fully endorse them (though Berwick Law is significantly Opposed, hence in Row 3 - but I'm chancing a Remedial Supplementary on it). I expect a profit.
Summary (Day 339) C/F to Mar 10 (Day340 Month12 Wk2.4 Phase06DrDay11) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +207 pts @ ave of +21/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +248 @ ave of +25/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **6 B/PL (5 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: No change
The Combos
Bets: 123 [+26], Total [+78] & Xtra [+2] Combos BASIC PLAN +106
Row 1
420 Sand. KILLAGHY CASTLE/Won F/c 2/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.82 but not likely avail. New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.35 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.13 Bets: Basic & Star (Capped on the total of the two)+ Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubles & Trebles (with Row 2 when possible, today enhancements of the Basic bet - taking the grand total above the capping threshold), Place Only BASIC PLAN +11
Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Supplemetary): Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (including non-short-listed in Place Only I), 2nd rung Remedial Supplementary on BERWICK LAW/Won, Mistake/s [Nil], Discrepancy [-0.52] [OVERALL +8]
Row 3
245 Ayr. MARSHALL HALL/WON F/c 8/15 Infiltrated on Support (1xNap,1xNB)
530 Ayr. BERWICK LAW/Won F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.86 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.80 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.22 Bets: Place Only on Berwick Law BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - Rows 2 & 3 and
Sand: HOO LA BALOO/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Ayr: NICKY TAM/LOST - Chep: HIGH CHIMES/WON - Sand: JAMADIEL/FELL
Wolv: EKTIMAAL/WON - RIDGEWELL/WON - WILD PATCH/LOST
Bets: Basic [OVERALL -1]
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
EKTIMAAL/Won (Double stake) Bets: None (i.e., just in the Total Combo within "Overall") BASIC PLAN EVEN
Tips
1) Main tip to hand is FARMER BROWN EW/LOST F/c 7/1 [Bets (against advice): Split of very small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 11 pts for 'large' field [OVERALL -11]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Ayr: MARSHALL HALL/Won (61W58L)
Chep: HIGH CHIMES/Won (27W24L) Added: PETITE MARGOT/2ND (17W28L) + MARK THE BOOK/WON (No stat avail.)
Sand: KILLAGHY CASTLE/Won (27W24L) HOO LA BALOO/Won/JAMADIEL/Fell (61W33L) Added: GASPARA/WON (19W23L) Bets: Basic Place Only except Win bet in running on Gaspara [OVERALL +4]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk) awaited if any:
727 Gulf(USA) RAINBOW FLIGHT F/c 3/1/LOST - yesterday 727 Gulf(USA) FEARLESS VISION F/c 9/5/Late result - see tomorrow Sand: SWIFT SAILOR/LOST/GASPARA/Won Wolv: VERY WISE/LOST, Fair(IR) SWEET KILN/2ND F/c 1/3 - PHANTOM LAD/WON F/c 2/7 Newm(RSA) ABSOLUTE DANCER/LOST F/c 9/10 - BLACK EYES/LOST F/c Evs no bet - MAJOR BLUFF/LOST F/c 7/10 More awaited - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule win/Place-Show on Rainbow Flight & Fearless Vision [OVERALL -2]