Diary for Mar 09 2007
Bets on Fri Mar 09 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -4 pt (within OVERALL: -16)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night):
4 in my short-list: BARON MONTY/WON (Row 2), DURANTE/FELL (Row 3), ZAHAM/WON (originally Place Only I but elevated to Row 2 following a non-runner) & COUSIN NICKY/NO RUN (Place Only II). My Majority stats are about as strong as they get but my Odds stats endorse them reasonably positively only about Baron Monty. Modest stakes. I expect a small profit but may need a fair wind. The wind blew one of the runners over?
Summary (Day 338) C/F to Mar 10 (Day339 Month12 Wk2.3 Phase06DrDay10) E&OE - BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +89 pts @ ave of 10/day ... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +131 @ ave of 15/day. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **5 B/PL (4 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651 - yet to be confirmed). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: post Phase 06C: (1) I have reconsidered and repositioned the 3 Combos above Row 1 in belated acknowledgement of their importance to this format. (2) I've reinstated "Place Only II" but, as expected, within "Overall."
The Combos
Bets: 123 Combo [-5], Total [-7] & Xtra [-1] Combos + Xtras BASIC PLAN -13
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
230 Ayr. BARON MONTY/Won F/c 1/3 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.47 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.72
LingA: ZAHAM/Won F/C 11/10 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) 1.49 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.21
Bets: Basic + Mop Ups, 1st rung FS + Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubles & Trebles (with Row 1 when possible, today both are Sequential Doubles), Place Only, 1st rung Ad hoc Remedial Supplementary on DURANTE/Fell, Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (including non-short-listed in Place Only I), Mistake: Not strictly a mistake, but I re-did the 3 Combos to reflect the inclusion of Zaham as an addition to Row 2. With Durante's fall, a non-runner & Zaham only in Naps I, the original Combos lost 8 points between them. As they were not the substantive bets, I decided to locate this loss here [-8], Discrepancy [Negligible] BASIC PLAN +10 plus OVERALL -10
Row 3
220 Leic. DURANTE/Fell F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.23 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.59 Bets: Place Only BASIC PLAN -2
Place Only I - Rows 2 & 3 and
Sand (Meeting abandoned): HOO LA BALOO - BACK NINE - RUNTHATPASTMEAGAIN
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
Ayr: KINBURN/PU
Leic: MY BEST BUDDY/2ND
Sand: COUSIN NICKY/No run
Bets: Basic OVERALL -2
Naps I
ZAHAM/Won (Triple stake) Bets: Basic, Double (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 when possible, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet) BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II
BACK NINE/No run Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as this is usually a Win tip): Split of very small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ... (11/15 pts for 'large/small' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Ayr: BARON MONTY/Won (60W58L)
Leic: DURANTE/Fell (61W54L) SURFBOARD/2ND (31W39L) MY BEST BUDDY/2nd (61W54L)
Sand (Meeting off): HOO LA BALOO (61W33L) BACK NINE (61W54L) [OVERALL EVEN (+0.47)]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk) awaited if any:
220 Fair(RSA) YVELINES/2ND F/c 6/10, 727 Gulf(USA) RAINBOW FLIGHT F/c 3/1/Late result - see tomorrow More awaited - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule win/Place-Show on Rainbow Flight [OVERALL EVEN (-0.33)]