Diary for Mar 03 2007
Bets on Sat Mar 03 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -16 pts (within OVERALL: -14)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I short-listed 4: ROGUES GALLERY/NO RUN, KARELLO BAY/LOST & WAKING NED/WON (Row 2), BYWELL BEAU/WON (Row 3).
Bywell Beau is the 'odd one out' in terms of Majority support with a rating of 8 (61W85L). The others are strongly supported on the face of it. Difficult to say how things might go - either way, I should think, on balance. Stake sizes have not computed terribly high.
I hope for the best. At least I can be pleased that today's deficit traces to the failure of the subscription tip I got (Flying Enterprise: -15 pts).
Summary (Day 333) C/F to Mar 04 (Day334 Month12 Wk1.4 Phase06DrDay4) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +19 pts... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +67. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **1 B/PL (1 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won!
PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218]
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347]
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Ongoing stock-take, Basic Plan: Phase 06C: (1) I have decided to change the '2-Row Trebles' bet on Rows 1 & 2 to '2-Row Doubles & Trebles' - to try to cash in a bit more on my strongest qualifiers (2) Provisionally, I am dropping Place Only II pending running an AMD check on this category
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2 - Sout: ROGUES GALLERY/No run Kemp: KARELLO BAY/Lost F/c 4/9 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.99, Row 2 new Odds stat enhancer x 1.48, Old stat enhancer x 1.79 WAKING NED/Won F/C 4/9 Min val odds + 20% = 1.87, Row 2 new Odds stat enhancer x 1.47, Old stat enhancer x 2.09. Bets: Basic + Mop Ups, '2-Row Doubles & Trebles' (new category - today, Sequential Doubles), Place Only, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN -12
PLUS Supplementaries: the '123' & 'Total' Combos + Xtras, Mistake/s, Discrepancy (Negligible) OVERALL +24
Row 3
Kels: BYWELL BEAU/Won F/c 2/1 Min val odds + 20% = 2.80 General new odds stat stakes reducer (on Reverse stats adjustment basis) x 0.69 Old stat stakes reducer (ditto) x 0.72 Bets: Mop Up, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.02]
Place Only I - on all the short-list and Kels: REGAL HEIGHTS/WON Kemp: BOLD FIRE/LOST Newb: PROCAS DE THAIX/2ND. Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II - discontinued (for the time being)
Naps I KARELLO BAY/Lost Bets: Basic, Mop Up, Xtra Combo + LateXtras (new to this Row) BASIC PLAN -2
Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancies - Discontinued (for the time being)
Tips
1) Main tip to hand is FLYING ENTERPRISE/LOST F/c 4/1 I rejected it in my work which is probably endorsement enough! Has a good chance, I would think. Bets (against advice as this is a Win tip): Split of very small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 15 points (for a 'small' field) [OVERALL -15]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Kels: WAKING NED/Won (34W48L) Kemp: BOLD FIRE/Lost (19W22L) KARELLO BOY/Lost/*GREENHILL BRAMBLE/2ND -*no bet (61W32L) Newb: No selection. Bets: Place Only [OVERALL -8]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): Turf(RSA) LIGHTNING LECTURE/LOST F/c 9/10, 658 Gulf(USA) DEADLY DEALER/WON F/c 4/1 More tips awaited if any - but not expected Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.31)]