Diary for Mar 02 2007
Bets on Fri Mar 02 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +42 pts (within OVERALL: +95)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I chose 7 to short-list (+ 4 experimentally from a card in South Africa: 2xW,1xN/r,1x? - but no bets): NIKE WALKER/W (Row 1), SOLDIERS QUEST/W, MARSHALL HALL/W & NEVADA RED/2ND (Row 2), ROYAL FLYNN/2ND, MONEY ORDER/W & PENNY POST/LOST (Place Only I).
The messages I gleaned from my methodology & stats were favourable of a good day in prospect - but, as I am still betting in "the Delta Quadrant," I did not dare go with my numbers fully, having a hunch there were too many options for me to get it 100% right.
Summary (Day 332) C/F to Mar 03 (Day333 Month12Wk1.3Phase06DrDay3) E&OE
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) Surplus = +35 pts... within OVERALL Phase 06Dr Surplus = +81. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **1 B/PL (1 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won!
PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day330 Phase06C Day119) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218]
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347]
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Stock-take, Basic Plan: Phase 06C
Starting at “A” my AMD (Alphabetical Monitor) had registered “(O)” by Feb 28 – a circa 11 rung improvement. However, my Basic Plan Bank deteriorated in the same period 122 points. Each rung of ‘improvement’ lost circa 11 points. Conclusion? Tweak the Basic Plan 'Dashboard' somehow to compensate.
Phase 06Dr has begun (i.e., "r" for remedial - but possibly "t" for "transitional" would be better)
1) My first change today was to double the threshold for capping of my Row 1 "Star" bets. This bet category is thoroughly proven, having enjoyed a growing credit balance for ages. If I'm right, this change should have the effect, jointly, of increasing the number of winning days and decreasing the average size of losing ones.
2) I moved the 123 & Total Combo bets out of Basic Plan. They'll be accounted under Overall in future (within Row 2) as Supplementaries.
3) I have discontinued my Fancies Row for the time being.
During March, I'll study my records, looking for further ways to tweak my "Dashboard."
Row 1
NIKE WALKER/w F/c 4/9 Row 1 New Odds stat enhancer x 2.09 Old stat enhancer x 1.19
Bets: Basic, 1st rung Star + Mop Up, Place Only, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +20
Row 2
SOLDIERS QUEST/w F/c 4/7 Row 2 New Odds stat enhancer x 1.48 Old stat enhancer x 1.77
MARSHALL HALL/w F/C 4/7 Row 2 New Odds stat enhancer x 1.45 Old stat enhancer x 1.71
NEVADA RED/2nd F/c 8/15 Row 2 New Odds stat enhancer x 1.48 Old stat enhancer x 1.77
Bets: Basic, Place Only, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +15
PLUS Supplementaries: the '123' & 'Total' Combos, Mistakes: I omitted my usual 2-Row Doubles (Row 1 & Naps I) - a serious omission: would have done well today; *I included my 2-Row Trebles (*4 pts loss), here, but prefer it in Rows 1 & 2, after all, as previously accounted, Discrepancy (Negligible) OVERALL 40 + *4 (i.e., the Trebles deficit moved to the detriment of BASIC PLAN instead) = +44
Row 3
MARSHALL HALL/w & SOLDIERS QUEST/w again
Bets: Mop Ups BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on all the short-list
Bets: Place Only, Xtra Combo + LateXtras BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II - discontinued for the time being
Naps I
NIKE WALKER/w & SOLDIERS QUEST/w
Bets: Basic, Mop Ups, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +4
Naps II
DOUBLE DEFAULT/w
Bets: Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancies - Discontinued (for the time being)
Tips
1) Main tip was JACKS CRAIC/2ND F/c 5/2
Bets (against advice as this is a Win tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 11 points (for a '7 RUNNER' field) [OVERALL +8]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Ayr: MARSHALL HALL/w (17W23L) ROYAL FLYNN/2ND (58W58L) NEVADA RED/2nd (14W32L)
Newb: NIKE WALKER/w (60W32L)
Bets: Place Only [OVERALL +3]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
USA: VICTORY AFLEET/LOST F/c 5/1 - yesterday
Gulf(USA) LORD STRIPES/LOST
Sain(Fr) BROOKLYN BOY/2ND
More tips awaited if any - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL -2]