Diary for Mar 01 2007
Bets on Thu Mar 01 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -7 pts (within OVERALL: -14)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I struggled and eventually chose 2 to short-list: OLD BENNY/WON (Row 3) & NOBODY TELLS ME/LOST (Xtra Combo).
The messages I gleaned from my methodology & stats were mixed. I have had good days on similar but I am not in a mood to take chances. My stats are fairly strong in many respects but complicated by easy to find negatives. I suspect that today is one that could disappoint all too readily. It is one for exercising extreme caution, I feel. Accordingly, I have launched in with only a very few, and highly modest, bets.
Summary (Day 331) C/F to 2 Mar (Day332 Month12Wk1.2Phase06DRDay2) E&O
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06Dr wef 01/03/07) deficit = -7 pts... within OVERALL Phase 06DR deficit = -14. Gain days in Phase 06Dr: Mar: **0 B/PL (0 O/A). **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won! PLUS BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06-28/02/07: Day331 Month12 Week1.1 Phase06C Day120) = -81 pts net .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -673 pts gross (adjusted, for presumed error, from -651). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 13 B/PL (12 O/A)[-93], Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06 to 31/10/06) = +204 points ….within. OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347] PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Short-list (Place Only) Combo (Old Benny), Short-list (Win) Combo (Nobody Tells Me), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (on Nobody Tells Me - built into the Xtra Combo as its race is Win Only), the 3 'Combo' Supplementaries + Xtra/s, Mistake? I really don't know what Nobody Tells Me is doing in Row 3! (That entry should have been Old Benny) This error cost me a few points. Discrepancy (*-0.92) OVERALL [*-13.25] *adjusted to -12
Row 3 Correction: OLD BENNY/Won
[Sic. 350 Taun. NOBODY TELLS ME/Lost F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.45 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.72]
Bets: None BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I
320 Taun. OLD BENNY/Won F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20 = 1.08 (To Place) New odds stat enhancer x 3.90 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
Added: NOBODY TELLS ME/Lost (Xtra Combo)
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.03]
Place Only II - Discontinued for the time being
Naps I
OLD BENNY/Won & NOBODY TELLS ME/Lost
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, '2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, today restricted to these) BASIC PLAN -7
Naps II
NEVER SO BLUE/2ND
Ludl: DEFINITE
Bets: None BASIC PLAN EVEN
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancies - Discontinued (for the time being)
Tips
1) Main tip to hand is PARKINSON/WON F/c 2/1 Support isn't overwhelming for it in the Selection Box and I have some ratings which put it at only 4th favourite. I rejected it myself even though tipped by one of my famous 8 from the Naps Table. Does not look a certainty on this evidence.
Bets (against advice, usually, as this is a Win tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 15 points (for a 'Small' field) [OVERALL +9]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Ludl: No selection
Taun: OLD BENNY/Won/LOW DELTA/2nd (58W32L) - RAREGEM/FELL/SEA SNIPE/LOST (73W57L) - NEVER SO BLUE/2nd (26W24L) - I'M SO LUCKY/WON (57W58L)
Bets:
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
825 Gulf(
120
N0 2 VICTORY AFLEET F/c 5/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More tips awaited if any - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win
Lime(IR):
Nada(UAE): MOFARIJ/WON - ASIATIC BOY/WON - DISCREET CAT/NO RUN
Bets: Multi Tip (EW5Fold Accum) [OVERALL -2]