The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Wed Feb 28 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -33 pts (within OVERALL: -31)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I have short-listed 5: CHRISTADALO/WON & NIKE WALKER/WON (Row 1), LOULOU NIVERNAIS/NO RUN & AMERICAN CRICKET/NO RUN (Row 2), JABBARA/LOST (Row 3).
My Majority stats are encouraging about these. My Odds stats are pretty good, too, but I have taken a chance on Jabbara which, though short-listed (on a Majority rate of 9), is included in Row 3 equally on Support.
It is not cut and dried - for there's a sprinkling of 'odd-one-out' tipster nominations in opposition - but these stats suggest the possibility does exist of a bumper day ahead. Accordingly, I've gone with my numbers on the Multiples, albeit based on Capped stakes in some cases. The commitment, in aggregate, has computed quite heavy by recent standards - a bad day would hurt. I feel optimistic, however. Disappointing - but the damage could have been worse.

Summary (Day 330) C/F to 1 Mar (Day331Month12Week1.1Phase06CDay120) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -81 points net @ an average this Phase of -c1 points/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -651 points gross @ an average of -c5 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **13 B/PL (12 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far corrected (I think I now know where it is)], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
350 Folk. CHRISTADALO/Won F/c 1/10 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% (not available) New odds stat stakes adjuster (Row 1) x Zero Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.75
455 Folk. NIKE WALKER/Won F/c 1/4 Min val odds + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.83 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.00
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Ups, Capped Star (2nd rung) + Mop Ups, 2-Row (Sequential) Double (with Naps 1) I failed to enhance the 2nd bet with the gain from the 1st (fell asleep!), 2-Row Trebles (with Row 2), Place Only (capped about Nike Walker), the 3 Combos (all Capped) + Xtras, Short-list (Place Only) Combo (not Loulou Nivernais & American Cricket), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (Ditto), Mistake/s: see above, Discrepancy (Negligible)     BASIC PLAN +11 plus OVERALL +1

Row 2
340 Weth. LOULOU NIVERNAIS/No run F/c 4/7 Min value odds + 20% = 2.00 (not likely to be avail) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.45 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.19
520 Weth. AMERICAN CRICKET/No run F/c 2/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.45 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.60
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Trebles (with Row 1), the 3 Combos (as per Row 1) + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -22

Row 3
505 SoutA. JABBARA/LOST F/c 5/1 Taking a chance Min val odds + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.20 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28 (also on Support: 2xNaps,1xNB)
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (as per Row 1) + Xtra This loss by Jabbara made all the difference today     BASIC PLAN -14

Place Only I - on Rows 1, 2 (Xtra Combo only), 3 plus
Weth: SEAFIRE LAD/NO RUN - REEL CHARMER/NON RUN
Bets: Basic, Capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.01]

Place Only II
Folk: FEMME D'AVRIL/NO RUN
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [Zero]

Naps I
NIKE WALKER/Won
Bets: Basic + Mop Up, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row (Seq.) Double (with Row 1), Capped Total Combo + Xtra     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.40]

Naps II
FEMME D'AVRIL/No run & LOULOU NIVERNAIS/No run
Bets: Capped Total Combo + Xtra     BASIC PLAN -8

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy reject from Place Only II:
SouthA: REGAL PARADE/WON
Bet: Basic Place Only I'd toyed with Infiltrating this into Row 3 but decided against. Pity!     OVERALL EVEN [+0.06]

Tips
1) No Main tip awaited [Bets (against advice usually as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'Small/Large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Folk: FEMME D'AVRIL/NO RUN (19W22L) - CHRISTADALO/Won (57W32L) - NIKE WALKER/Won (72W57L)
Weth: REEL CHARMER (60W52L) - LOULOU NIVERNAIS (57W58L) - Abandoned
Bets: Basic Place Only except Win bets on Reel Charmer & Loulou Nivernais     [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
Down(NI) FRENEYS WELL/2ND F/c 7/4
825 Gulf(USA) EXTRA CLASSY F/c 3/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More tips awaited - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.35)]