2007-Feb-27
Diary for Feb 27 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -3 pts (within OVERALL: -7)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I have short-listed 4: MY MIRASOL/LOST & IRILUT/WON (Row 3), SPIDAM/LOST (for the Xtra Combo bet) & ESPRIT SPIRIT/2ND (Place Only I).
My Majority stats are encouraging about these except for Esprit Spirit, whose Odds stats, however, are some degrees better than 50/50 for the win. My Odds stats about the others are worst regarding Irilut, a little worse than 50/50 about My Mirasol, good about Spidam (though Spotlight is negative about its race for betting purposes - also it is significantly Opposed in the RP Selection Box).
Very little risked today. I shall be delighted with any level of gain.
Summary (Day 329) C/F to 28 Feb (Day329Month11Week4.7Phase06CDay119) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -48 points net @ an average this Phase of -c0 points/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -620 points gross @ an average of -c5 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **13 B/PL (12 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far corrected (I think I now know where it is)], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Short-list (Place Only) Combo (not Spidam), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (not Spidam), Mistakes: (1) Xtra/A Combo as Parish Oak was included in error (corrected), (2) 123/1A Combo (wrong horse included - corrected), (3) Total/1A Combo (Ditto), Discrepancy (*+53) OVERALL [*-3.77] *adjusted to -3
Row 3
200 LingA: MY MIRASOL/Lost F/c 10/11 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 2.40 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.60
420 Leic: IRILUT/Won F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.74 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.19
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (the Xtra Combo is capped) + Xtras BASIC PLAN -3
Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Leic: SPIDAM/Lost (Xtra Combo only) - ESPRIT SPIRIT/2nd - [PARISH OAK demoted to Fancy]
Bets: Basic, Capped Xtra Combo + De-capped LateXtras BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
Leic: BRUMOUS/WON
LingA: SCARLET OAK/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +3
Naps I
ESPRIT SPIRIT/2nd (Triple stake)
[Mistakenly I put "MY MIRASOL/Lost" here earlier]
Bets: Basic + Mop Up, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet), '2-Row Double' (with Row 1 normally, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo + Xtra/s BASIC PLAN -2
Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II:
Leic: MOKUM/LOST (4321 bet selection)
Bet: Tiny win
Leic: PARISH OAK/LOST (reject from Place Only I)
Bet: Basic Place Only OVERALL -2
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice usually as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'Small/Large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Catt: RING THE BOSS/WON (58W52L)
Leic: ESPRIT SPIRIT/2nd (58W52L)
Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk)
653 Phil(USA) GOODIE'S JET/WON F/c 7/5 - yesterday
150 Durb(RSA) ROSESTONE/LOST F/c 5/1
505 Phil(USA) EXCITING AFFAIR/NO RUN F/c 6/1
More tips awaited if any - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.26)]
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