The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Sat Feb 24 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -117 pts (within OVERALL: -189)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I found 5 to short-list: AREYOUTALKINGTOME/LOST (Row 2), LIMITED EDITION/WON, CLAY HOLLISTAR/LOST & SUPREME BUILDER/LOST (Row 3), RAIN AND SHADE/LOST (Place Only I). My Majority stat is best about Areyoutalkingtome, the rest around average (Limited Edition & Rain And Shade, however, in the minority as regards wins over losses). I've seen better - and yet done well enough on worse in the past.
As I write, I find myself feeling I've been over-optimistic, probably, to have included all of these. Negatives are not hard to spot. I've been swayed by the forecast odds in a couple of cases (not wise, too often for comfort). They're all opposed in the RP Selection Boxes, a couple significantly. I'll need good luck today.
Didn't get much luck. Thus 'damage limitation' policies worked extra poorly. Whenever this happens, they make things worse (but I wouldn't be without them).

Summary (Day 326) C/F to 25 Feb (Day327Month11Week4.4Phase06CDay116) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -202 points net @ an average this Phase of -c2 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -777 points gross @ an average of -c7 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **12 B/PL (11 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far located], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
305 LingA. AREYOUTALKINGTOME/Won F/c 2/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.54 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.83
Bets: Basic, FS (1st rung) + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Trebles' (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Place Only, the 3 Combos (Capped 'Total' one) + Xtra/s, Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Tiny Ad Hoc Place Only Supplementaries on ISAN/LOST (400 Newc) & Limited Edition/Won, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (not the Bumpers), Major mistake: 123/A Combo as regards EWDoubles when they should have been Win Doubles (Took a chance by also placing it correctly ), Discrepancy (*-1.71)     BASIC PLAN -34 plus OVERALL [*-54.20] *adjusted to -56

Row 3
415 Kemp. LIMITED EDITION/Won F/c 13/8 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.80 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.81
515 Kemp. CLAY HOLLISTER/Lost F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 2.40 New odds stats reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28
505 Newc. SUPREME BUILDER/Lost F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.51 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28
Bets: Place Only on Limited Edition, the 3 Combos (the Total one Capped) + Xtra/s     BASIC PLAN -46

Place Only I - on Row 2, Limited Edition from Row 3, and
LingA: RAIN AND SHADE/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtra/s      BASIC PLAN -6

Place Only II
Kemp: LUCIFER BLEU/LOST - FAST FORWARD/2ND - CLAY HOLLISTER/Lost
LingA: SHAWHILL/3RD
Newc: SUPREME BUILDER//Lost
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -11

Naps I
AREYOUTALKINGTOME/Lost
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Total Combo + Xtra/s     BASIC PLAN -10

Naps II
LUCIFER BLEU/Lost
Bet: Capped Total Combo + Xtra/s     BASIC PLAN -9

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy reject from Place Only II:
Added: LingA: MARAJAA/LOST
Newc: TEEMING RAIN/LOST
Bets: Basic Place Only     OVERALL -1

Tips
1) Main tip to hand TEEMING RAIN/Lost F/c 7/2
Bets (against advice usually as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 11 points (for a 'large' field)     [OVERALL -11]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Kemp: LUCIFER BLEU/Lost (26W23L)- FAST FORWARD/2nd/LIMITED EDITION/Won (57W57L)
Newc: ISAN/Lost (57W57L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL -4]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
A couple of Anti Post bets to run: 310 Kemp: LIMERICK BOY/CELTIC SON/BOTH LOST
110 Newm: SCHOOL ASSEMBLY/2ND F/c Evs
330 Newc: LORDOFOUROEN/LOST
924 Gulf(USA) No8 SOUTHERN FLU/LOST F/c 3/1
More tips awaited if any - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win      [OVERALL EVEN (-0.30)]