The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Fri Feb 23 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -119 pts (within OVERALL: -157)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I found 4 to short-list: NIKE WALKER/NO RUN (Row 1), PANCAKE/WON (Row 2), HELEN WOOD/LOST & MY MIRASOL/WON (Row 3). My stats are encouraging, not that they guarantee anything, the weakest of which are the Odds stats about Helen Wood (both minorities on the losses side though, obviously, not extreme - born out today, sadly). I shall be holding my breath for two 'odd-one-out' selections have been selected in opposition in the RP Selection Boxes.
Though apprehensive, and, assuming the opposing selections don't prevail (& my excellent Majority stats, indeed, bear out in the event), I feel it's possible - even likely - a good end-result may accrue today.
I can't be too hard on myself (two solid favourites having run SO badly) but, with hindsight, perhaps I was wrong, for my Xtras, to rely on Row 3-ers (ie., the merely 'infiltrated' selection Moorlands Again plus, having the worst Odds stats within my short-list, my qualifier Helen Wood). For the future, reliance 'up (seldom down) the Rows' must be favourite for Xtra bets as standard.
Also, with hindsight, I should have recalled my initial "apprehension" more seriously after Sandown had been abandoned. (It did cross my mind.) The loss of a likely banker bet had unbalancing the day's configuration of bets arguably, making it bottom heavy. Valuable lessons learnt from today's experience, I feel.

Summary (Day 325) C/F to 24 Feb (Day326Month11Week4.3Phase06CDay115) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -85 points net @ an average this Phase of -c1 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -588 points gross @ an average of -c5 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **12 B/PL (11 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far located], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
140 Sand. NIKE WALKER/No run F/c 2/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.44 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.30 Old stat stakes enhancer x *3.50 (*based on only 27 results: 21W6L)
Bets: the 3 Combos (all capped) + Xtra/s     BASIC PLAN -30

Row 2
220 Warw. PANCAKE/Won F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 1.35 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x **14.00 (**based on only 16 results: 15W1L - I call it "14") Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.78
Bets: Capped Basic + Capped Mop Up, Flat FS (2nd rung) + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row 'Trebles' (with Row 1, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtra/s, Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary EWTrebles as part of 123/1 Combo + Xtra, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, Mistake: unnecessary LateXtra/2A Combo, Discrepancy *-0.69     BASIC PLAN -14 plus OVERALL [*-29.82] *adjusted to -31

Row 3
235 Wolv. MY MIRASOL/Won F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.80 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.78
405 Warw. MOORLANDS AGAIN/LOST F/c 9/4 Infiltrated on Support (2xNaps,2xNBs - opposed by 1xNB)
440 Warw. HELEN WOOD/Lost F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 2.65 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.78
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Capped Combos + Xtra/s 2 failures costly     BASIC PLAN -71

Place Only I - on Rows 1, 2 & 3 and
Wolv: AMMEYRR/LOST
Bets: Basic, Capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra/s      BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only II
Warw: MOORLANDS AGAIN/Lost
Wolv: CLIMATE/LOST
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -2

Naps I
MY MIRASOL/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic + Mop Up, 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Total Combo + Xtra/s     BASIC PLAN +10

Naps II
HELEN WOOD/Lost
Bet: Capped Total Combo + Xtra/s     BASIC PLAN -10

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy
Nada: EXPRESS WAY/2ND - ALEXANDRA ROSE/LOST - GREEK RENAISSANCE/3RD
Bets: Multi Fancy (EWDoubles & EWTreble) + Xtras
Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II:
Warw: LEADING CONTENDER/LOST - Added on price: ICE CRYSTAL/PULLED UP
Wolv: QUIET TIMES/WON
Bets: Basic Place Only     OVERALL -5

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice usually as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Sand: NIKE WALKER/No run (32W48L)
Warw: CARNIVAL TOWN/3RD (55W56L) - HENRY'S PRIDE/WON (55W56L) - HELEN WOOD/Lost (55W56L) - Added on price: ICE CRYSTAL/Pu (9W20L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL -2]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
Nada: EXPRESS WAY/2nd - ALEXANDRA ROSE/Lost - GREEK RENAISSANCE/3rd
1210 Arli(RSA): HULLETS EXPRESS/LOST
727 Gulf(USA): FOREVER FREE/LOST F/c 8/1
More tips awaited - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win      [OVERALL -1]