2007-Feb-22
Diary for Feb 22 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -46 pts (within OVERALL: -69)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I found only MY TURN NOW/WON (Row 2) to short-list. It is significantly opposed, but my Odds stats are quite strongly favourable (not that this guarantees anything). It looks to be another Laura Luck day. More disappointing even than feared, alas.
Summary (Day 324) C/F to 23 Feb (Day325Month11Week4.2Phase06CDay114) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +34 points net @ an average this Phase of +c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -431 points gross @ an average of -c3 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **12 B/PL (11 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far located], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
335 Hunt. MY TURN NOW/Won F/c 4/9 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.39 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27
Bets: Basic + Mop Up, 2-Row Trebles (with Row 1, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras (replacing a combined Sequential Double, the latter retained as -/A x 3 Combo bets), Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, Ad hoc Supplementary (Place Only) on HOH VISS/LOST, Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (*+1.11) BASIC PLAN -2 plus OVERALL [*-9.79] *adjusted to -9
Row 3
455 SoutA. NAMROUD/LOST F/c 7/4 Infiltrated on Support (1xNap,1xNB)
[For info: Min value odds + 20% = 2.64 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.82]
Added due to non-runner: 220 SoutA. FAIRILEE/LOST by infiltration on Support
Bets: The 3 Combos + Xtras BASIC PLAN -25
Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3
SoutA: FAIRNLEE/Lost (Promoted from Place Only II)
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtra BASIC PLAN -3
Place Only II
Hayd: LITTLE ROCKER/LOST - LE PASSING/LOST/ARTIC JACK/PULLED UP
Hunt: LIGHTNING STRIKE/2ND
SoutA: SOHRAAB/NON RUN
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -4
Naps I
MY TURN NOW/Won & NAMROUD/Lost
Bets: Basic + Mop Ups, Sequential Double, 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the existing Sequential Double), Total Combo + Xtra BASIC PLAN -12
Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy
Nada: BLUE SKY GOD/Lost - GEMOLOGY/LOST - DESCARTES/NON RUN
Bets: Multi Fancy (EWDoubles, EWTreble) + Xtras
Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II:
Hayd: MISTER POTTER/WON/ONCE A BROWNIE/PULLED UP - POLINAMIX/2ND/TYSON/WON
Hunt: CHIEF YEOMAN/WON - ALFIE'S SUN/LOST
SoutA: ARCH OF TITUS/3RD
Bets: Basic Place Only OVERALL -3
Tips
1) Main tip to hand DAISYDELL/LOST F/c 4/1
Bets (against advice usually as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 11 points (for a 'large' field) OVERALL -11]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Hayd: No selection - Added on price: HOH VISS/Lost
Hunt: MY TURN NOW/Won (54W56L)
Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (-0.22)]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
825 Gulf(USA) DEBBIE GOT EVEN/2ND F/c 2/1 - yesterday
600 Gulf(USA) JUGUETONA/LOST F/c 10/1
Nada: BLUE SKY GOD/Lost - GEMOLOGY/3rd - DESCARTES/Non run - ADVICE/LOST
More tips awaited - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL -1]
0 comments | add a comment