The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Mon Feb 19 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -40 points (within OVERALL: -37)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I have short-listed 5: CLOUDLESS DAWN/2ND & BARBERS SHOP/2ND (Row 2), THEATRICAL MOMENT/WON (Row 3), CLOUDMOR/2ND (Place Only I) & ROLE ON/LOST (Place Only II).
My Majority stats are encouraging about all (especially Cloudless Dawn) - not that this guarantees anything. My Odds stats are excellent about Barbers Shop, otherwise encouraging about the rest (except Role On & Cloudmor which show minorities of wins compared with losses). Each is Opposed (in the Selection Boxes), Cloudmor & Theatrical Moment significantly. Of my favoured Naps Table tipsters, only two have Napped any of these: Barbers Shop and Role On. Accordingly, the messages are mixed to a degree, indicating it is probably unwise to invest too strongly. I'll call fortunate any profit whatsoever that comes my way today.

Summary (Day 321) C/F to 20 Feb (Day322Month11Week3.6Phase06CDay111) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +31 points net @ an average this Phase of +c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -419 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **11 B/PL (10 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far located], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
210 Carl. CLOUDLESS DAWN/2nd F/c 4/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 2.01 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.45 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.86
305 MarkR. BARBERS SHOP/2nd F/c 2/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.57 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.45 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.63
Bets: Basic + Mop Ups (Capped re. Barbers Shop), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally, today a Sequential Double), Place Only (Capped re. Barbers Shop), 123 & Xtra Combos + Xtras, Total Combo (partially capped, except the Accum) + Xtras, Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (including Role On), Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (*+0.93)     BASIC PLAN -42 plus OVERALL [*-1] *adjusted to EVEN [+0.05]

Row 3
445 MarkR. THEATRICAL MOMENT/Won F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.80 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.72
CLOUDLESS DAWN/2nd added to Row 3 to bump up the mutiple bets
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos as per Row 2 + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -5

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Carl: CLOUDMOR/2nd
Bets: Basic/Capped Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.31]

Place Only II
Carl: ROLE ON/Lost - MASTER SEBASTIAN/LOST
LingA: RAVENNA/3RD - Rejected after all; no bet
MarkR: ALTERNATOR/2ND/VALIANT SHADOW/WON - SCOTS DRAGOON/LOST
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.06]

Naps I
LingA: CHALLIS/WON (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (today a tiny enhancement of the Basic bet), '2-Row Doubles' (with Row 1 normally, today a further tiny enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN +6

Naps II
BARBERS SHOP//2nd
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN +1

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
LingA: CHALLIS/Won
MarkR: CHARACTER BUILDING/WON/ICE MELTED/2ND
Bets: Basic Place Only     OVERALL +1

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'large/small' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Carl: ROLE ON/Lost - no match (67W57L) - CLOUDLESS DAWN/2nd (57W51L) - CLOUDMOR/2nd (13W32L)
MarkR: BARBERS SHOP/2nd (67W57L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
600  Gulf (USA) DIAMOND MIA/LOST F/c 4/1 - yesterday
924 Gulf(USA) BLUE BULLET F/c 2/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More tips awaited - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win      [OVERALL EVEN (-0.11)]