2007-Feb-18
Diary for Feb 18 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +203 points (within OVERALL: +211)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I have short-listed 3: UNITED/WON (Row 2), PETITE MARGOT/WON (Row 3) & MARODIMA/WON (Place Only I).
My (Sundays) Majority stats are very encouraging about Petite Margot &, on far fewer results, United. My Odds stats (on plenty of results) are excellent about these but modest about Marodima (minority readings on wins vs. losses).
Except that I have taken chances - by not applying Sunday Mode and by going with my numbers on the multiples without extra capping - I feel I can be hopeful.
Summary (Day 320) C/F to 19 Feb (Day321Month11Week3.5Phase06CDay110) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +71 points net @ an average this Phase of +c1 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -382 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **11 B/PL (10 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far found], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
330 Font. UNITED/Won F/c 10/11 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.42 Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.00 (on only 5 results: 4W1L - I call it "x 3")
Bets: Basic + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally, today a small enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos (all partially capped) + Xtras, Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (including Marodima), Mistake: extra Place Only on Marodima, Discrepancy (Negligible) BASIC PLAN +36 plus OVERALL +3
Row 3
420 Towc. PETITE MARGOT/Won F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.69 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.96
UNITED/Won added to Row 3 to bump up the mutiple bets
430 Font. HELEN WOOD/WON F/c 11/4 Infiltrated on Support (2xNaps,1xNB)
Bets: Place Only (not Helen Wood), the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +100
Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Towc: MARODIMA/WON
Bets: Basic/Capped Basic, Capped Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +4
Place Only II
Font: GLASKER MILL/FELL/TURKO/WON - SUPERROLLERCOASTER/WON/BALLYKIN/2ND - HELEN WOOD/Won/SOUTH OF THE BORDER/LOST
Towc: BONNET'S PIECES/2ND
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +2
Naps I
UNITED/Won (Triple stake) & PETITE MARGOT/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic (Capped on United), Double, '2-Row Doubles' (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +62
Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
Font: LEO MCGARRY/WON (near qualifier for a 4321 bet)
Bets: Basic Place Only/Tiny 4321 Win bet OVERALL +2
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'large/small' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Towc: MARODIMA/Won (25W23L) - PETITE MARGOT/Won (50W32L)
Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +2]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
756 Gulf(USA) CHANGING WEATHER/WON F/c 3/1 - yesterday
130 NewmRSA UPTOWN GIRL/LOST
240 Nava(IR) SWEET KILN/WON F/c 5/4
600 Gulf (USA) DIAMOND MIA F/c 4/1/Late result - see tomorrow
420 Pau(Fr) MAJOKO - no bet
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL EVEN (+ 0.47)]
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