2006-Sep-28
Diary for Sep 28 2006
Day179Month6Week4.7 (Phase 06B Day59)
PROSPECTS
A "Laura Luck" day today, I feel. My stats barely approach 50/50 for a win by DORIC CHARM/WON, and that's the nearest I found as a possible qualifier for my main Rows. Taking a chance, I've allowed it to creep into Row 3. Could very well fail, however.
The stat-adjusted stake on CAPE/WON in 'Place Only I' has computed rather high in amount compared with the other qualifiers in that Row. If it fails to Place, that will hurt somewhat. Otherwise, my stakes are small (pending any main tip's arrival).
My mood tonight is not at all hopeful. As I say, a Laura Luck day, but always interesting for that reason if no other. The enduring magic of horse racing ...
OUTCOME:
Laura Luck was with me today.
OVERALL +46 points (including BASIC PLAN +44)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Sep Week 4.7+1 Day180 (Phase B: Day 60)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -303 points @ an average of -c5/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -73 points @ an average of -c1/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep: 12 (15)
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Supplementary - Row 2): Short-List Combo, Tiny win bet in error on VELVET HEIGHTS/LOST after Davenport lost (see Fancies - I forgot that the bet there was EWDoubles and not an EWTreble) OVERALL +4
Row 3
310 Ayr. DORIC CHARM/Won F/c 11/8 Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 2.68 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.09
515 Newm. CAPE/Won F/c 4/6 Included due to its Support (3xNaps, 1xNB)
Bets: Place Only (not Cape), 123 Combo (Sequential) , Total & Xtra Combos BASIC PLAN +17
Naps I
CAPE/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, Double (an enhancement of the Basic bet as there is no other selection), 2-Row Double (normally with Row 1 but today a further enhancement only of the Basic bet), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +9
Naps II
355 Here. ERICAS CHARM/WON F/c 11/4 Halve stake as the race is over obstacles
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN +8
Place Only I - on Row 3 (including Cape) and
Here: ERICAS CHARM/Won - TERRIBLE TENANT/WON - MY CONDOR/2ND
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo My Condor's 2nd in the last of these races broke the sequence of winners. Pity. BASIC PLAN +7
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Here: EAU DU NIL/3RD/ABSOLUTELYTHEBEST/WON
Newm: ASPERITY/WON - LEOPOLDINE/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +3
Fancies
Ayr: HOW'S SHE CUTTIN'/2ND - VELVET HEIGHTS/Lost
Newm: DAVENPORT/LOST - no single bet (forgot)
I have decided not to back selections in this Row singly
Bets: Maybe, exceptionally, a tiny "4321" win bet just on Davenport, EW Doubles OVERALL -1
My Lay bets - None
Tips
907 Laur(USA). TEN BOLTS/LOST (Late result from yesterday)
MELROSE POINT 1240 Vaal(RSA/WON
CHESTY 907 Laur(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.44)]
No major Lay tip to hand
No major Win tip to hand
Good word to hand (but not confident) on LENINGRAD/LOST 255 Newm.
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
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